Tag: march madness

Sports, Take The PointsLeave a comment

Finding This Year’s Dogs That Aren’t Really Dogs In The NCAA Tournament

weezel32

Every year, we hear about some lower seeds pulling off an “upset for the ages” in the NCAA March Madness Tournament. Only, more often than not, it wasn’t really an upset, by Vegas odds standards, let alone one for the ages. Year after year, there are lower seeds who are actually favored in games, or very small underdogs. That is actually one of the first things I look at before filling out brackets. So, here is that exercise for public consumption. Lower Seeds who are favored Baylor vs. Mississippi State. This one barely qualifies. Baylor, the nine seed, is -1 … Continue reading Finding This Year’s Dogs That Aren’t Really Dogs In The NCAA Tournament

SportsLeave a comment

The KenPom Criteria Qualifiers For National Champions

weezel32

3/25/24 Pre-Sweet 16 Checkin Checking in after the opening weekend, and all six of the identified teams have survived, and five of the six are favorites in the Sweet 16 round. If you do the math on those chances to win, that adds up to a 76.5 percent chance the system identified the champion pre-tournament. I have been doing moneyline rollovers on all six of these teams, instead of taking futures bets on any of them. I’ll likely continue to do that for all six at least one more round. 3/18/24 A few weeks back, I wrote about the teams … Continue reading The KenPom Criteria Qualifiers For National Champions

SportsLeave a comment

This Is (March) Madness

weezel32

I sit here staring at spreadsheets, brackets, survivor strategies…all of it. I’ve been on a nonstop podcast binge of nothing but college basketball and gambling. All listened to at 2x speed. I’m the guy who can tell you the exact expected win percentages of every team in the NCAA men’s bracket, for every round, based off an algorithm using both advanced analytics and human polling, factoring in travel distance even. I’m the guy who can tell you the point spread, within a point or two, of just about every potential matchup before the spreads are released. I’m the guy who … Continue reading This Is (March) Madness

Sports, Take The PointsLeave a comment

College Basketball Power Ratings: The Field Of 68

weezel32

The field is set. All 68 teams know their matchups. So, here are the IAW power ratings for all of the teams who saw their names called tonight. 1 Gonzaga Zags 100.0 2 Arizona Wildcats 95.9 3 Houston Cougars 94.9 4 Kansas Jayhawks 94.4 5 Tennessee Volunteers 94.4 6 Kentucky Wildcats 94.3 7 Baylor Bears 94.1 8 Iowa Hawkeyes 93.5 9 Auburn Tigers 93.2 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders 93.0 11 Duke Blue Devils 92.9 12 UCLA Bruins 92.9 13 Purdue Boilermakers 92.6 14 Villanova Wildcats 92.2 15 Illinois Illini 90.2 16 Arkansas Razorbacks 89.7 17 Connecticut Huskies 89.4 18 … Continue reading College Basketball Power Ratings: The Field Of 68