National Title Odds and Returning Production

The calendar turns to July, which just brings us one month closer to the return of college football. I know, I know. I’ll wait for you to wipe away the tears of anticipation. Betting odds are up for the national title, with all the usual suspects. Top 10, via Draftkings Team Odds 1 Alabama +225 2 Clemson +300 3 Ohio St +400 4 Oklahoma +650 5 Georgia +700 6 Iowa St +2800 7 LSU +4000 7 Texas A&M +4000 7 Florida +4000 10 Texas +5000 One of the first things I look at when looking at preseason futures (usually win … Continue reading National Title Odds and Returning Production

Ball Five: If I Were Sports Czar…

*This originally ran in the Wayne County Press. Buy a damn paper. Just about every Dick Schapp wannabe out there has a “If I ruled the sports world” column. Well, here is mine. In a world where I can make any changes to any sport with unilateral autonomy, my priority list would include: DH In Both MLB Leagues I really thought we had this done last year. Anyone trying to preach No DH is doing it out of nostalgia, not a love of strategy. “But it makes it more interesting to manage”. Shut up, ’82. No it doesn’t. You just … Continue reading Ball Five: If I Were Sports Czar…

“Was Gonzaga A Fraud All Along?” is a stupid take

So, I’m scrolling through Twitter earlier today and I see a tweet that was, essentially, “I bought into a fraud with Gonzaga”. I get gut reactions and someone not thinking this one through. We are all guilty of it, but you know me. I try to put things in historical perspective as often as I can. One game be damned. In the basketball world, KenPom has become one of the most relevant sources of, well, relevancy. Their Adjusted Efficiency Measure changed the analytical world enough so that it had a huge impact on Vegas line setting. It is pretty easily … Continue reading “Was Gonzaga A Fraud All Along?” is a stupid take

Mike Trout Watch

No, this is not a post telling you to watch Mike Trout. Although, yes. As often as possible, yes. No, this post is what has become one of my favorite Opening Day exercices of the last few years. Where does Mike Trout rank in career WAR, and how many Hall of Famers will he pass this year. So, as of opening day, the Angels outfielder is sitting at 74.1 career WAR. That is already good enough to rank 81st all time, in 10 seasons, at the age of 28. The most recent Hall of Famers in his rearview mirror, despite … Continue reading Mike Trout Watch

IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-22

Here are what my power ratings spread numbers look like for the Monday slate of games today. This uses my power ratings published here. Slightly different format today as regular work life means I’m rushing. Below is my spreadsheet cheat sheet I use. It includes the Vegas spread and total, my IAW power rating spread, a column for the difference between money and bet percentages, and then the bets or picks of some of the pro gamblers I follow. Remember, I’m not that smart, but I know who the smart people are. Continue reading IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-22

IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-21

Here are what my power ratings spread numbers look like for the Sunday slate of games today. This usses my power ratings published here. Loyola-Chicago vs. Illinois, 11:10 a.m., Central Current Vegas Spread: Illinois -7. Total 133.5Weez Spread: Illinois -7.9. Wisconsin vs. Baylor, 1:40 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: Baylor -6.5, 137.5Weez Spread: Baylor -6. Syracuse vs. West Virginia, 4:15 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: West Virginia -4, 147.Weez Spread: West Virginia -3.1. Texas Tech vs. Arkansas, 5:10 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: Texas Tech -2, 141.Weez Spread: Texas Tech -0.2. Rutgers vs. Houston, 6:10 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: Houston -7.5, 132.Weez Spread: … Continue reading IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-21

From Gonzaga To Norfolk: Power Rating The Tournament Teams

Between the multiple jobs this year, including a high school sprint through basketball season, along with the Covid unknowns, I did not do my weekly college basketball power ratings this year. Well, I felt like doing them for the tournament. I guess I just got the itch while doing some brackets. So, here are my power ratings for all 68 teams in the field. Remember, these are spread ratings, so the lower the number the better. For example, Gonzaga at 0 is the baseline. They would be a 9.1-point favorite over Kansas, for example. Illinois would be a 5.9-point favorite … Continue reading From Gonzaga To Norfolk: Power Rating The Tournament Teams