NFL Playoff Preview, By The Numbers–Conference Championship

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers Line: Packers -3.5 or -3. Total 51.5. Opened GB -3.5, 51. Pro Line: 2.6 Bettor Rating Bucs -0.7. 538: GB -3.5, 63%.Bet%: GB 58%. Money%: GB 58%. DVOA Breakdown Packers 60.4% chance to win.Weighted DVOA: Packers #3 (31.4%). Bucs #3 (33.6%). Packers Offense (#1) vs. Bucs Defense (#6)#1 Pass DVOA vs. #5 Pass D DVOA#5 Rush DVOA vs. #1 Rush D DVOA Bucs Offense (#2) vs. Packers Defense (#14)#5 Pass DVOA vs. #15 Pass D DVOA#10 Rush DVOA vs. #18 Rush D DVOA ProsPackers: Howard, Fezz, Moss, Schwartz, Murray. Rams: Tucker, Raybon, Tulley.Over: … Continue reading NFL Playoff Preview, By The Numbers–Conference Championship

NFL Playoff Preview–Second Round

St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers Line: Packers -6.5. Total 45.5. Opened GB -7, 47. Pro Line: 5.5. Bettor Rating 3.4. 538: GB -9, 78%.Bet%: GB 60%. Money%: GB 54. DVOA Breakdown Packers 79.7% chance to win.Weighted DVOA: Packers #4 (31.4%). Rams #8 (14.1%). Packers Offense vs. Rams Defense#1 Pass DVOA vs. #4 Pass D DVOA#5 Rush DVOA vs. #3 Rush D DVOA Rams Offense vs. Packers Defense#20 Pass DVOA vs. #15 Pass D DVOA#4 Rush DVOA vs. #18 Rush D DVOA Injuries: GB: David Bakhtiari on IR Jan. 2. 4x Pro-Bowl, 0 sacks this year. Jared Veldheer on … Continue reading NFL Playoff Preview–Second Round

Preseason NFL Over/Under Predictions Review: An exercise in mediocrity.

With the regular season in the rearview, it is time to see how Bruce and I did on our win total predictions. NFC NFC East Weez Bruce Cowboys 9.5 Over Over Eagles 9.5 Under Under Giants 6.5 Under Over Redskins 5.5 Under Under NFC West 49ers 10.5 Under Under Seahawks 9.5 Under Over Rams 8.5 Under Under Cardinals 7 Over Over NFC North Vikings 9 Under Under Packers 9 Under Under Bears 8.5 Under Under Lions 6.5 Over Over NFC South Saints 10.5 Over Over Buccaneers 9.5 Under Under Falcons 7.5 Over Over Panthers 5.5 Under Under So, in the … Continue reading Preseason NFL Over/Under Predictions Review: An exercise in mediocrity.

NFL Postseason Awards

With the NFL regular season completed, and the Heisman out of the way tonight. it is time to take a quick look at the NFL postseason awards, how I would vote and how I expect it to go. NFL MVP What I think it will be: 1) Aaron Rodgers. 2) Patrick Mahomes 3) Josh Allen. How I would vote: 1) Patrick Mahomes. 2) Aaron Rodgers. 3) Derrick Henry. This is Aaron Rodgers’ award by almost all accounts. He has the narrative of “the old man’s last hurrah” and the argument that the younger Patrick Mahomes has plenty of time to … Continue reading NFL Postseason Awards

NFL Draftkings Week 16

Here is what I’m looking at this week. Here is what I’m rolling with this week. There is enough value out there you can pay up to Mahomes at QB this week, but I’m going with Hurts and that rushing upside against the Dallas D. And then we have a bunch of guys I keep playing in the wrong weeks–David Johnson, Tim Patrick, DJ Moore. They have all had good weeks, seemingly anytime I don’t play them. So my solution apparently is just to always play. Godert is my hurts stack as that salary has come down on him. And … Continue reading NFL Draftkings Week 16

NFL Draftkings Week 15

Here is what I’m looking at this week. Single lineup this week as I plow through my to-do list and play catch up on some house/personal stuff this morning. Doing something this week you absolutely should not do: playing a bunch of high ownership guys in smaller GPP tournaments. Hilton, Mahomes, Kamara, Hockenson and Aiyuk all project to be 10-20 percent owned this week. In fact, the only low-owned guy in this lineup is probably Gallup. And yes, I paid up for the Rams, who should be the most popular defense to own as they face the Jets. Make no … Continue reading NFL Draftkings Week 15