Category: Sports

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“Was Gonzaga A Fraud All Along?” is a stupid take

weezel32

So, I’m scrolling through Twitter earlier today and I see a tweet that was, essentially, “I bought into a fraud with Gonzaga”. I get gut reactions and someone not thinking this one through. We are all guilty of it, but you know me. I try to put things in historical perspective as often as I can. One game be damned. In the basketball world, KenPom has become one of the most relevant sources of, well, relevancy. Their Adjusted Efficiency Measure changed the analytical world enough so that it had a huge impact on Vegas line setting. It is pretty easily … Continue reading “Was Gonzaga A Fraud All Along?” is a stupid take

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Mike Trout Watch

weezel32

No, this is not a post telling you to watch Mike Trout. Although, yes. As often as possible, yes. No, this post is what has become one of my favorite Opening Day exercices of the last few years. Where does Mike Trout rank in career WAR, and how many Hall of Famers will he pass this year. So, as of opening day, the Angels outfielder is sitting at 74.1 career WAR. That is already good enough to rank 81st all time, in 10 seasons, at the age of 28. The most recent Hall of Famers in his rearview mirror, despite … Continue reading Mike Trout Watch

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IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-22

weezel32

Here are what my power ratings spread numbers look like for the Monday slate of games today. This uses my power ratings published here. Slightly different format today as regular work life means I’m rushing. Below is my spreadsheet cheat sheet I use. It includes the Vegas spread and total, my IAW power rating spread, a column for the difference between money and bet percentages, and then the bets or picks of some of the pro gamblers I follow. Remember, I’m not that smart, but I know who the smart people are. Continue reading IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-22

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IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-21

weezel32

Here are what my power ratings spread numbers look like for the Sunday slate of games today. This usses my power ratings published here. Loyola-Chicago vs. Illinois, 11:10 a.m., Central Current Vegas Spread: Illinois -7. Total 133.5Weez Spread: Illinois -7.9. Wisconsin vs. Baylor, 1:40 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: Baylor -6.5, 137.5Weez Spread: Baylor -6. Syracuse vs. West Virginia, 4:15 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: West Virginia -4, 147.Weez Spread: West Virginia -3.1. Texas Tech vs. Arkansas, 5:10 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: Texas Tech -2, 141.Weez Spread: Texas Tech -0.2. Rutgers vs. Houston, 6:10 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: Houston -7.5, 132.Weez Spread: … Continue reading IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-21

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From Gonzaga To Norfolk: Power Rating The Tournament Teams

weezel32

Between the multiple jobs this year, including a high school sprint through basketball season, along with the Covid unknowns, I did not do my weekly college basketball power ratings this year. Well, I felt like doing them for the tournament. I guess I just got the itch while doing some brackets. So, here are my power ratings for all 68 teams in the field. Remember, these are spread ratings, so the lower the number the better. For example, Gonzaga at 0 is the baseline. They would be a 9.1-point favorite over Kansas, for example. Illinois would be a 5.9-point favorite … Continue reading From Gonzaga To Norfolk: Power Rating The Tournament Teams

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Super Bowl, By The Analytics

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Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Line: Chiefs -3, Bucs +3.5. Total 56.5. Opened Chiefs -3.5, 57.TAN Pro Line: 2.1 Bettor Rating: Bucs -0.7. 538: KC -1, 53%. Bet%: KC 62%. Money%: KC 81%. DVOA Breakdown Chiefs 53.2% chance to win. TB #3 Weighted DVOA (33.6%), KC #6 (19.4%) Chiefs Offense (#3) vs. Bucs Defense (#6)#2 Pass DVOA vs. #5 Pass D DVOA#13 Rush DVOA vs. #1 Rush D DVOA Bucs Offense (#2) vs. Chiefs Defense (#24)#5 Pass DVOA vs. #16 Pass D DVOA#10 Rush DVOA vs. #31 Rush D DVOA ProsChiefs -3: Burke.Big Money on Chiefs. Models on … Continue reading Super Bowl, By The Analytics

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NFL Playoff Preview, By The Numbers–Conference Championship

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers Line: Packers -3.5 or -3. Total 51.5. Opened GB -3.5, 51. Pro Line: 2.6 Bettor Rating Bucs -0.7. 538: GB -3.5, 63%.Bet%: GB 58%. Money%: GB 58%. DVOA Breakdown Packers 60.4% chance to win.Weighted DVOA: Packers #3 (31.4%). Bucs #3 (33.6%). Packers Offense (#1) vs. Bucs Defense (#6)#1 Pass DVOA vs. #5 Pass D DVOA#5 Rush DVOA vs. #1 Rush D DVOA Bucs Offense (#2) vs. Packers Defense (#14)#5 Pass DVOA vs. #15 Pass D DVOA#10 Rush DVOA vs. #18 Rush D DVOA ProsPackers: Howard, Fezz, Moss, Schwartz, Murray. Rams: Tucker, Raybon, Tulley.Over: … Continue reading NFL Playoff Preview, By The Numbers–Conference Championship

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NFL Playoff Preview–Second Round

weezel32

St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers Line: Packers -6.5. Total 45.5. Opened GB -7, 47. Pro Line: 5.5. Bettor Rating 3.4. 538: GB -9, 78%.Bet%: GB 60%. Money%: GB 54. DVOA Breakdown Packers 79.7% chance to win.Weighted DVOA: Packers #4 (31.4%). Rams #8 (14.1%). Packers Offense vs. Rams Defense#1 Pass DVOA vs. #4 Pass D DVOA#5 Rush DVOA vs. #3 Rush D DVOA Rams Offense vs. Packers Defense#20 Pass DVOA vs. #15 Pass D DVOA#4 Rush DVOA vs. #18 Rush D DVOA Injuries: GB: David Bakhtiari on IR Jan. 2. 4x Pro-Bowl, 0 sacks this year. Jared Veldheer on … Continue reading NFL Playoff Preview–Second Round