Tag: march madness

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Power Rating The NCAA Field

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Here are the consensus power ratings, using several rating systems and then equalized toward a spread. Rating systems utilized in these ratings include: KenPom, VSIN-Makinen, Sonny Moore, TeamRankings, VSIN-Bettors and EvanMiya. To compute an expected spread, subtract the favorite from the underdog’s ratings. Top 1 Michigan 99.7 2 Duke 99.0 3 Arizona 97.7 4 Florida 96.4 5 Houston 95.0 6 Iowa State 94.1 7 Illinois 94.0 8 Purdue 93.5 9 Gonzaga 92.1 10 Michigan St 91.3 11 UConn 91.2 12 Vanderbilt 91.1 13 Louisville 90.6 14 Alabama 90.5 15 Virginia 90.5 16 St. John’s 90.3 17 Tennessee 90.2 18 Arkansas … Continue reading Power Rating The NCAA Field

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Finding This Year’s Dogs That Aren’t Really Dogs In The NCAA Tournament

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Every year, we hear about some lower seeds pulling off an “upset for the ages” in the NCAA March Madness Tournament. Only, more often than not, it wasn’t really an upset, by Vegas odds standards, let alone one for the ages. Year after year, there are lower seeds who are actually favored in games, or very small underdogs. That is actually one of the first things I look at before filling out brackets. So, here is that exercise for public consumption. Lower Seeds who are favored Baylor vs. Mississippi State. This one barely qualifies. Baylor, the nine seed, is -1 … Continue reading Finding This Year’s Dogs That Aren’t Really Dogs In The NCAA Tournament

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The KenPom Criteria Qualifiers For National Champions

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3/25/24 Pre-Sweet 16 Checkin Checking in after the opening weekend, and all six of the identified teams have survived, and five of the six are favorites in the Sweet 16 round. UConn is a 11-point favorite over SDSU and sitting with a 25.5 percent chance of winning it all, according to Nate Silver. Purdue is a 5.5 point favorite over Gonzaga with a 17.7 percent chance. Arizona is a 7 point favorite over Clemson with a 13.8 percent chance. Houston is a 4.5 point favorite over Duke with a 12.5 percent chance. Marquette is a 6.5 point favorite over NC … Continue reading The KenPom Criteria Qualifiers For National Champions

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This Is (March) Madness

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I sit here staring at spreadsheets, brackets, survivor strategies…all of it. I’ve been on a nonstop podcast binge of nothing but college basketball and gambling. All listened to at 2x speed. I’m the guy who can tell you the exact expected win percentages of every team in the NCAA men’s bracket, for every round, based off an algorithm using both advanced analytics and human polling, factoring in travel distance even. I’m the guy who can tell you the point spread, within a point or two, of just about every potential matchup before the spreads are released. I’m the guy who … Continue reading This Is (March) Madness

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College Basketball Power Ratings: The Field Of 68

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The field is set. All 68 teams know their matchups. So, here are the IAW power ratings for all of the teams who saw their names called tonight. 1 Gonzaga Zags 100.0 2 Arizona Wildcats 95.9 3 Houston Cougars 94.9 4 Kansas Jayhawks 94.4 5 Tennessee Volunteers 94.4 6 Kentucky Wildcats 94.3 7 Baylor Bears 94.1 8 Iowa Hawkeyes 93.5 9 Auburn Tigers 93.2 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders 93.0 11 Duke Blue Devils 92.9 12 UCLA Bruins 92.9 13 Purdue Boilermakers 92.6 14 Villanova Wildcats 92.2 15 Illinois Illini 90.2 16 Arkansas Razorbacks 89.7 17 Connecticut Huskies 89.4 18 … Continue reading College Basketball Power Ratings: The Field Of 68