IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-22

Here are what my power ratings spread numbers look like for the Monday slate of games today. This uses my power ratings published here. Slightly different format today as regular work life means I’m rushing. Below is my spreadsheet cheat sheet I use. It includes the Vegas spread and total, my IAW power rating spread, a column for the difference between money and bet percentages, and then the bets or picks of some of the pro gamblers I follow. Remember, I’m not that smart, but I know who the smart people are. Continue reading IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-22

IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-21

Here are what my power ratings spread numbers look like for the Sunday slate of games today. This usses my power ratings published here. Loyola-Chicago vs. Illinois, 11:10 a.m., Central Current Vegas Spread: Illinois -7. Total 133.5Weez Spread: Illinois -7.9. Wisconsin vs. Baylor, 1:40 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: Baylor -6.5, 137.5Weez Spread: Baylor -6. Syracuse vs. West Virginia, 4:15 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: West Virginia -4, 147.Weez Spread: West Virginia -3.1. Texas Tech vs. Arkansas, 5:10 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: Texas Tech -2, 141.Weez Spread: Texas Tech -0.2. Rutgers vs. Houston, 6:10 p.m. Current Vegas Spread: Houston -7.5, 132.Weez Spread: … Continue reading IAW Spreads for March Madness, 3-21

From Gonzaga To Norfolk: Power Rating The Tournament Teams

Between the multiple jobs this year, including a high school sprint through basketball season, along with the Covid unknowns, I did not do my weekly college basketball power ratings this year. Well, I felt like doing them for the tournament. I guess I just got the itch while doing some brackets. So, here are my power ratings for all 68 teams in the field. Remember, these are spread ratings, so the lower the number the better. For example, Gonzaga at 0 is the baseline. They would be a 9.1-point favorite over Kansas, for example. Illinois would be a 5.9-point favorite … Continue reading From Gonzaga To Norfolk: Power Rating The Tournament Teams

College Football Power Ratings, Championship Week

At the start of this football season, I made the decision to not do power ratings this year. I simply did not want to invest the time in ratings teams in a season with so much capacity for chaos during a pandemic. Players out, games cancelled, etc. It just seemed like a futile exercise this year, just like resistance to the Borg. But, with championship week upon us and the playoff, I decided to do my power ratings for the 25 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings. This is not a ranking of who should be in or out, … Continue reading College Football Power Ratings, Championship Week

College Basketball Power Rankings

It’s college basketball tournament time, with the conference tournaments underway, and March Madness right around the corner. I will not be making my annual trek to Vegas this year, as I have a Boston work trip next week. And Illinois did not get anyone with mobile betting up just yet, which means if I want to make any legal wagers, I’m driving to Indiana again. Still, I finally got a chance to sit down and work on some power rankings. I have a top 64 for now. I will sit down next weekend and power rate each NCAA Tournament team, … Continue reading College Basketball Power Rankings

CFB Power Ratings–Pre-Bowl Season

Here are my pre-bowl season power ratings, with bowl games set to kick off Friday. And yeah, my top two power rated teams are playing each other in the semifinals. Note: these do not take into account players sitting out yet. As for coaches leaving, I don’t adjust much based on interim coaches. Since 2010, teams have performed right at their ATS numbers on average even with interim coaches. Rank Team IAW RTG 1 Ohio State 0.6 2 Clemson 2.1 3 LSU 4.4 4 Alabama 7.3 5 Georgia 10.1 6 Oklahoma 12.1 7 Utah 13.4 8 Michigan 13.6 9 Florida … Continue reading CFB Power Ratings–Pre-Bowl Season

College Football Power Ratings Week 14

Between the Macbook biting the dust and travel by both me and my boss in consecutive weeks, it has been about a month since I was last able to update my power ratings for college football. The holiday week allowed me to finally get them updated this week. This is my first update since the Tua injury, and Alabama slides down to number four in my rankings. That is probably a spot or two higher than most, as I’m giving credit to Nick Saban to be smart enough to negate some of the dropoff through game plan. I think his … Continue reading College Football Power Ratings Week 14

College Football Power Ratings Week 10

After not getting to update last week, here are the updated IAW ratings. And yeah, we have a new number one. With Tua out, I have Ohio State 3.4 points better than Alabama. With Tua healthy, I would still have them about 1/2 point better. Rank Team IAW RTG 1 Ohio State 0.0 2 Alabama 3.4 3 Clemson 4.1 4 LSU 6.3 5 Oklahoma 8.6 6 Georgia 9.9 7 Penn State 11.3 8 Wisconsin 12.1 9 Auburn 12.6 10 Utah 13.9 11 Oregon 14.3 12 Michigan 14.6 13 Florida 14.7 14 Notre Dame 18.0 15 UCF 18.2 16 Washington 18.3 … Continue reading College Football Power Ratings Week 10

College Football Power Ratings Week 8

This week’s IAW Power Ratings have been updated. Ohio St. continues to move closer to Alabama and further ahead of Clemson. Georgia falls to number six after the loss to South Carolina, but not as far behind as it might seem. They had four turnovers in a game they otherwise were the better team in. With the schedule they have, if they win out, they still most likely make the playoffs. Rank Team IAW RTG 1 Alabama 0.3 2 Ohio State 2.3 3 Clemson 4.8 4 LSU 5.9 5 Oklahoma 6.6 6 Georgia 8.2 7 Wisconsin 9.0 8 Penn State … Continue reading College Football Power Ratings Week 8

College Football Power Ratings Week 7

Here are this week’s NCAA football power ratings. The IAW rating is how many points different between the two teams, on a neutral field, or how many points underdog they would be against Alabama. Rank Team IAW RTG 1 Alabama 0.0 2 Ohio State 1.8 3 Clemson 5.1 4 LSU 5.3 5 Georgia 5.8 6 Oklahoma 6.2 7 Wisconsin 10.2 8 Penn State 11.2 9 Auburn 12.0 10 Oregon 13.0 11 Notre Dame 13.2 12 Florida 13.7 13 Michigan 16.1 14 Missouri 16.2 15 Utah 17.3 16 Texas A&M 17.6 17 Washington 17.6 18 Iowa 17.7 19 Texas 17.7 20 … Continue reading College Football Power Ratings Week 7