Every year, the Kentucky Derby shows up and tempts people like me into pretending we understand horses.

I do not mean that in a self-deprecating way. I mean it in the most honest way possible. I can watch football, basketball or baseball and at least pretend I have built some kind of functional model in my head. With the Derby, I am squinting at past performances, Beyer figures, pace notes, final fractions and morning-line odds, trying to separate real insight from “this horse has a cool name and looks fast in the picture.”

Still, that is part of the fun.

For this little exercise, I am giving myself an imaginary $20 bankroll for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. The rule is simple: I can spread the money across three to five bets however I want. No second mortgage. No “lock of the century.” No pretending I am suddenly a cigar-chomping railbird with a stopwatch and a secret tip from a guy named Louie. This is something we do each year for our Take The Points show on Wabash Catch TV.

Just $20. A few opinions. A tiny bankroll wearing a giant hat.

The Method

I started with a criteria list from TheLines that used recent Derby history to narrow the field. The filters are pretty simple:

1. Did the horse finish in the top two of its final prep race?
2. Did the horse pass the Final Fractions Theory test, meaning it showed enough late stamina in its final prep?
3. Has the horse posted a 100-plus Brisnet Speed Rating?
4. Has the horse posted a 95-plus Beyer Speed Figure?

The idea is to look for horses that match the general profile of recent Derby winners rather than just chasing names, odds or vibes. The Final Fractions Theory is especially interesting because every Derby horse is being asked to do something new: run 1 1/4 miles in a 20-horse traffic jam while the entire horse-racing world screams around them. TheLines noted that a horse passes that test by running the final furlong in under 13 seconds or the final three furlongs in under 38 seconds.

From there, I used the VSiN Kentucky Derby Betting Guide, which includes Daily Racing Form past performances, expert picks, pace notes and analysis from Mike Somich, Dave Tuley, David Aragona and others. The guide frames this year’s Derby as wide open, which is both exciting and terrifying. Translation: we might be right, but the racing gods might also throw a flaming horseshoe through the window.

My Top Five Horses

1. Commandment

Commandment is my top pick because he feels like the cleanest blend of form, figure, trip versatility and price.

He won the Florida Derby, owns a 101 Beyer in the VSiN/DRF guide, and checks the “can he handle different race shapes?” box better than most of this field. That matters in the Derby because the cleanest horse on paper can get swallowed by the crowd like a hot dog wrapper in a wind tunnel.

David Aragona’s analysis in the VSiN guide also backs up the idea that Commandment has already proven himself through the strongest prep path. He has handled different pace scenarios, found ways to fight through traffic and already owns a Churchill Downs win. That is enough for me to make him the horse I trust most.

2. The Puma

The Puma is the horse I keep circling back to as the best value play.

He lost the Florida Derby to Commandment by a nose, which is horse racing’s way of saying, “Yes, you were basically right, but here is pain anyway.” He also owns a 100 Beyer in the VSiN/DRF guide and has been progressing at the right time.

The question is distance. He is not quite as convincing as Commandment going 10 furlongs, but at around 10-1, I am willing to forgive a little uncertainty. At that price, The Puma is exactly the kind of horse I want on a small ticket. Not safe. Not crazy. Somewhere in the useful chaos zone.

3. Chief Wallabee

Chief Wallabee is the ceiling horse.

He does not fit the top-two final prep filter because he was third in the Florida Derby, but I am not tossing him entirely. The VSiN guide repeatedly highlights the Florida horses, and Mike Somich was especially high on Chief Wallabee’s talent, calling him the most talented of that Florida trio.

That is the kind of sentence that gets a horse into my ticket.

The concern is that he is still figuring things out. Blinkers are going on, and that can help, but it also adds a little mystery powder to the stew. In a normal race, maybe I would be more willing to gamble on pure ability. In the Derby, with 20 horses and every possible bad trip waiting like a trapdoor, I am using him but not building the entire ticket around him.

4. Renegade

Renegade is good. Very good.

He won the Arkansas Derby, owns a 98 Beyer, and has the kind of late-running profile that makes sense for this race. The problem is the rail draw. Some handicappers are not as concerned about the No. 1 post because the newer Derby starting gate has made the inside less treacherous than it used to be, but I still do not love taking a short price on a horse that may need things to work out immediately.

So Renegade is not a toss for me. He is more of an underneath horse. If he wins, it will not be a shock. But with only $20 to play with, I do not want to spend too much of it betting a favorite from the rail.

5. Further Ado

Further Ado is the fastest horse on paper, with a 106 Beyer listed in the VSiN/DRF guide.

That is not nothing. Actually, that is a giant blinking neon sign.

But there are questions. His best work has come at Keeneland, and the Derby is not a neat little laboratory race. It is loud, dirty, weird and rude. He also drew outside, which can be good because he may avoid early traffic, but it still forces the rider to make the right decision at the right time.

I respect him too much to leave him out completely. I just do not love him enough, at what will likely be a shorter price, to make him my main win bet.

The Imaginary $20 Ticket

Here is where I landed:

Bet	Amount
Win: #6 Commandment	$5
Win: #9 The Puma	$3
Win: #12 Chief Wallabee	$2
$1 Exacta Box: 6 / 9 / 12	$6
$1 Exacta: 6, 9 over 1, 18	$4
Total	$20

That gives me three win chances and a small exacta structure built around my main opinion: Commandment and The Puma are the two horses I want most.

Chief Wallabee is my upside swing. Renegade and Further Ado are the “do not let these two wreck the whole thing” horses underneath.

Final Ranking

1. Commandment
2. The Puma
3. Chief Wallabee
4. Renegade
5. Further Ado

If I had to pick one horse to win, it is Commandment.

If I had to pick one value horse, it is The Puma.

If I had to pick one horse that might make me look either smart or ridiculous, it is Chief Wallabee.

That feels about right for the Derby. A little math. A little tape study. A little gut. A little nonsense. Twenty imaginary dollars standing at the window, trying to act like it belongs there. Now watch Emerging Market win.