Tag: college football

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Eastern Michigan, Really?

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Eight point favorites at home, and they lost to Eastern Michigan. This is such an Illini thing to do. Eight-point road dogs winning are not exactly rare, but this one will almost assuredly shake things up. When I started my new job, I had to go back to using a Windows laptop. That also meant moving on from the far superior Macbook Pro trackpad and going back to a mouse. I haven’t used a mouse since 2012. I also use a glass-top bar for my desk, so I had to borrow a mouse pad from my coworker. I’ve used it … Continue reading Eastern Michigan, Really?

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This Week in WTF Box Scores

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I scroll through box scores on occasion, looking for the weird and not repeatable. It helps to spot the outliers. One of my bets this week was Michigan State -14 vs Arizona State. They lost in heartbreaking fashion, making a game-thing FG before penalty negated it and then missed the retry. But it never should have been a game. The Spartans nearly doubled up ASU in yardage. They ran 22 more plays. They averaged 1.3 yards more per play. And scored seven points. ASU had a total of two scoring opportunities, and won. This gets an official WTF box score. Continue reading This Week in WTF Box Scores

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College Football Week 3 Spreads

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Last week, the system managed to go 25-19, despite a 1-9 start on Saturday’s games. That moves us to 47-43 overall. This week’s spreads are late to post, But I promise they were completed before the Friday games last night. I was 1-2 on those three anyway, with no bets on any of the three. Away RTG Home RTG HFA IAW Vegas North Carolina 26.8 Wake Forest 28.8 2.86 -0.9 -3 Kansas 45.1 Boston College 28.5 2.27 -18.9 -21 Washington St 19.0 Houston 32.0 2 11.0 9 Ohio St 8.9 Indiana 25.5 2.14 14.5 16.5 Kansas St 25.8 Miss St. … Continue reading College Football Week 3 Spreads

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College Football Power Ratings–Week 3

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Here are my updated power ratings, heading into week 3 of the college season. Among the top 5, LSU moved ahead of Georgia this week and Ohio St moved ahead of Oklahoma. Michigan slid out of the top 10 after barely surviving Army. Since week one, I have improved Wisconsin’s power rating by 5.1 points, moving them to number seven this week. Michigan has dropped 4.7. Maryland has moved up 7.8 points. I have had sizeable drops for Nebraska (4.2), Florida St. (7.8), Virginia Tech (4.6) and Stanford (4.7) as well. Rank Team RTG 1 Alabama 0.1 2 Clemson 1.6 … Continue reading College Football Power Ratings–Week 3

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College Football Week 2 Spreads

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Got off to an 18-22 start overall, IAW spreads vs. Vegas spreads, including the games that were virtual ties tenths of points off. After a five-day opening weekend, we have games just on Friday and Saturday this week. Can we stop and appreciate that Illinois is a 20-point favorite on the road. It has been a couple decades since that happened. Also, the last time we had a favorite as big as Alabama is this week (-55), Florida State covered. Week 2 Friday RTG Home RTG HFA IAW Vegas Wake Forest 29.1 Rice 51.0 3 18.9 18 Marshall 31.7 Boise … Continue reading College Football Week 2 Spreads

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CFB Week One–Saturday

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With the start of high school sports this week, I am running behind, so this post will be rolled out in phases today, starting with the noon game. After a 1-4 start Thursday, my ratings went 6-2 ATS on the Friday slate. I had only one actual bet last night, Wisconsin -10.5. They won by 49 in the Jonathan Taylor Heisman campaign launch. Saturday RTG Home RTG HFA IAW Vegas Florida Atlantic 34.65 Ohio St 11.15 2.17 -25.67 -27.5 South Alabama 53.31 Nebraska 21.18 1.48 -33.61 -35.5 East Carolina 43.81 NC State 26.58 2.88 -20.11 -17.5 Akron 50.69 Illinois 35.81 … Continue reading CFB Week One–Saturday

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College Football Week 1–Friday Slate

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Here are the IAW spreads for Friday’s games in week 1. The pick I like the most on this slate is Wisconsin -10.5 on the road. They should be able to get the lead early enough and then ride Taylor to a double-digit win. They return a ton, except for up front on offense, but the Badgers tend to be a reload team at o-line, not a rebuild one. That Utah St-Wake Forest game has some interest, as Utah St has one of the better non-Power 5 quarterbacks in Jordan Love, who NFL teams are high on. Problem is, he … Continue reading College Football Week 1–Friday Slate

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College Football, Week 1, Thursday Slate

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Well, week 0 did not disappoint, with two fun games. Hawaii pulled off the double-digit upset in week 0 for the second straight year, despite four interceptions and benching their starting quarterback. And that all came after Miami covered against Florida in a low-scoring affair, something we warned of. My projections wound up splitting against the spread. Week one brings our first Thursday games. I kind of like Texas State to backdoor cover in a game more important to them than Texas A&M. I like UCLA to be improved in year two of Chip Kelly and think that game is … Continue reading College Football, Week 1, Thursday Slate