Gridiron Autopsy | October 20, 2026 | College Football Week 7 • NFL Week 6
Time to examine this week’s autopsy report in football.
Eight AP-ranked college football teams lost this week. That includes five of the top seven, marking the first time in AP poll history that five teams ranked in the top seven lost on the same day. The No. 1 team lost at home to an unranked opponent. The No. 2 team lost as a double-digit favorite. Alabama and Texas both suffered their second consecutive defeats, while Missouri managed to turn 378 yards of offense into three points.
The NFL provided three qualifying outright underdog victories, including the biggest betting upset of the professional season so far. Arizona entered Los Angeles as a 12.5-point underdog and defeated the Rams without scoring a touchdown. Tennessee won despite being outgained by 213 yards, and Cleveland needed an offside penalty on a blocked field goal to finish off Baltimore.
Eleven bodies. Eight ranked college teams. Three NFL favorites.
The morgue is going to need another shift.
Coverage period: October 15-19, 2026. College rankings reflect the AP poll entering Saturday’s games. Betting lines represent archived late-market prices or identified sportsbook closing numbers. Where the final available price differs from earlier lines, the movement is noted.
College Football
No. 1 Georgia: Auburn 27, Georgia 24
AP ranking: No. 1 Georgia
Opponent: Auburn, unranked
Final score: Auburn 27, Georgia 24
Closing spread: Georgia -19.5 at BetMGM
Opening spread: Georgia -18.5
Betting result: Auburn wins outright as a 19.5-point underdog.
For the second consecutive week, the top-ranked team in college football is headed to the morgue.
Georgia entered Saturday undefeated, ranked No. 1 and favored by nearly three touchdowns against Auburn. The Bulldogs had also won 53 consecutive games against unranked opponents and had not lost to Auburn in Athens since 2001.
Then Gunner Stockton turned the ball over three times.
Georgia actually outgained Auburn 440-366 and averaged 6.8 yards per play to Auburn’s 4.9. The Bulldogs even jumped ahead 14-0 in the first quarter. Everything appeared to be following the script.
Auburn responded with 24 unanswered points.
Quarterback Byrum Brown rushed for 115 yards and a touchdown, while completing 15 of 26 passes for 150 yards and another score. The Tigers also manufactured a touchdown through a trick play, with Christian Neptune throwing a 24-yard pass to Keshaun Singleton.
Georgia eventually recovered, tying the game at 24 on Stockton’s four-yard touchdown pass to London Humphreys with 3:05 remaining.
But the final drive provided one more self-inflicted wound.
With Auburn moving into Georgia territory, the Bulldogs committed a 15-yard roughing-the-passer penalty with 24 seconds remaining. Alex McPherson eventually drilled a 34-yard field goal with three seconds left.
Auburn committed 11 penalties and gained 74 fewer yards, yet never turned the ball over.
Cause of death: Three-turnover trauma aggravated by a terminal personal foul. Georgia was more explosive, more efficient and favored by 19.5 points. Auburn simply protected the football and accepted the gifts.
No. 2 Notre Dame: No. 8 BYU 28, Notre Dame 24
AP ranking: No. 2 Notre Dame
Opponent: No. 8 BYU
Final score: BYU 28, Notre Dame 24
Late-market spread: Notre Dame -10.5
Opening spread: Notre Dame -10
Betting result: BYU wins outright as a 10.5-point underdog.
Notre Dame entered Provo undefeated, ranked second nationally and favored by more than 10 points against another undefeated team ranked eighth.
Apparently, the betting market had considerably more confidence in Notre Dame than BYU did.
The Cougars won 28-24 behind an extraordinary performance from quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who accounted for all four BYU touchdowns in three different ways.
Bachmeier threw for 224 yards and a touchdown, rushed for 45 yards and two scores, and even caught a 15-yard touchdown pass from Kyler Kasper.
Notre Dame actually outgained BYU 376-360 and won the turnover battle 2-1. But the Irish averaged only 4.8 yards per play, compared with BYU’s 5.4, and repeatedly failed to finish drives.
CJ Carr completed 27 of 49 passes for 261 yards but did not throw a touchdown. Notre Dame settled for three field goals, including two in the third quarter while attempting to erase a 21-10 halftime deficit.
The Irish finally took a 24-21 lead with 9:31 remaining when Jonaz Walton scored from three yards and converted the two-point attempt.
Bachmeier answered.
He found Walker Lyons for a six-yard touchdown with 1:53 remaining, reclaiming the lead. Notre Dame drove to the BYU eight-yard line in the final seconds but could not complete the comeback.
Cause of death: Red-zone inefficiency and one final defensive failure. Notre Dame generated more yardage and forced more turnovers but converted too many scoring opportunities into field goals.
BYU converted its final opportunity into seven points.
No. 5 Indiana: No. 4 Ohio State 19, Indiana 15
AP ranking: No. 5 Indiana
Opponent: No. 4 Ohio State
Final score: Ohio State 19, Indiana 15
Late-market spread: Ohio State -2.5; -3.5 available earlier
Opening spread: Ohio State -1.5
Betting result: Ohio State wins as the favored team.
Indiana belongs on the table because the Hoosiers were ranked fifth, but this was not a betting upset.
Ohio State entered Bloomington as a slight favorite and escaped with a four-point victory that ended Indiana’s 22-game winning streak.
The statistical evidence suggests the Hoosiers had a legitimate opportunity to keep that streak alive.
Indiana outgained Ohio State 369-313 and averaged 5.3 yards per play to the Buckeyes’ 4.6. Josh Hoover threw for 296 yards without an interception, while Charlie Becker caught nine passes for 165 yards.
But Indiana could not run the football.
The Hoosiers managed just 73 rushing yards on 29 attempts, allowing Ohio State to focus on disrupting the passing game. Indiana also lost two fumbles, offsetting the two interceptions thrown by Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin.
Sayin was hardly spectacular, completing 15 of 29 passes, but his two touchdowns proved decisive.
The biggest came early in the fourth quarter when Sayin found Jeremiah Smith for a 38-yard touchdown, extending Ohio State’s lead to 19-7.
Indiana answered with a touchdown and two-point conversion, cutting the deficit to four.
The Hoosiers had one final opportunity, reaching Ohio State territory in the final two minutes. An offensive holding penalty disrupted the drive, and the last meaningful play ended with Hoover failing to convert on fourth down.
Cause of death: Rushing-game paralysis and two lost fumbles. Indiana produced more yards and nearly pulled off the comeback, but Ohio State’s defense made the final stop.
No. 6 Alabama: No. 14 Tennessee 26, Alabama 10
AP ranking: No. 6 Alabama
Opponent: No. 14 Tennessee
Final score: Tennessee 26, Alabama 10
Late-market spread: Alabama -7.5; -8.5 available earlier in the week
Opening spread: Alabama -1.5
Betting result: Tennessee wins outright as a substantial underdog.
Alabama has now lost consecutive regular-season games for the first time since 2007.
The Crimson Tide entered Knoxville favored by more than a touchdown. They departed having produced 201 total yards, committed four turnovers and scored zero second-half points.
There is not much ambiguity in this examination.
Tennessee outgained Alabama 347-201 and averaged 4.8 yards per play to Alabama’s 3.7. The Volunteers also controlled possession for nearly 36 minutes.
Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell completed 19 of 29 passes for just 147 yards, threw two interceptions and lost additional possessions through fumbles.
The Crimson Tide managed only 54 rushing yards, while Tennessee’s defense recorded five sacks.
DeSean Bishop supplied the offensive punishment for Tennessee, carrying 32 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns.
The Volunteers initially struggled to finish drives themselves, settling for three first-quarter field goals and another in the second. Alabama briefly made the game competitive, cutting the deficit to 12-10 just before halftime.
Then the offense disappeared.
Bishop scored five-yard touchdowns in both the third and fourth quarters, while Alabama’s final meaningful possession ended with another Russell interception.
Tennessee committed two turnovers of its own, but the Volunteers generated 17 more offensive plays and 146 additional yards.
Cause of death: Complete offensive shutdown with four-turnover complications. Alabama was favored by more than a touchdown and failed to score after halftime.
The Crimson Tide now have two losses and a rapidly shrinking margin for error in the College Football Playoff race.
No. 7 Texas: Florida 27, Texas 24
AP ranking: No. 7 Texas
Opponent: Florida, unranked
Final score: Florida 27, Texas 24
Late-market spread: Texas -13.5; -11.5 also available Saturday
Opening spread: Texas -9.5
Betting result: Florida wins outright as a double-digit underdog.
Florida spent the previous two weeks appearing in this column as the deceased.
This week, the Gators brought the shovel.
Texas entered Saturday ranked seventh, favored by double digits and desperately needing a victory after losing to Oklahoma. The Longhorns appeared to have things under control when they jumped ahead 17-3 in the second quarter.
Then Florida started possessing the football.
The Gators ran 81 offensive plays to Texas’s 50 and controlled possession for 38:11. Florida gained 313 yards to Texas’s 272, although the Longhorns actually averaged more yards per play, 5.4 to 3.9.
That contrast tells much of the story.
Texas generated occasional explosive plays but could not sustain drives. Florida repeatedly moved the chains and kept Arch Manning standing on the sideline.
Freshman quarterback Tramell Jones Jr., making his first start, completed 22 of 35 passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Jadan Baugh added 91 rushing yards and a score.
Texas received an 80-yard punt-return touchdown from Ryan Niblett, yet still could not manufacture enough offense to win.
Florida tied the game at 17 in the third quarter, then scored 10 consecutive fourth-quarter points to take a 27-17 lead.
Manning answered with a touchdown pass to Cam Coleman, but Florida consumed the remaining clock.
Cause of death: Possession deprivation. Texas averaged more yards per snap and received a special-teams touchdown, but Florida ran 31 additional plays and controlled the game.
The Longhorns have now lost consecutive games as substantial favorites.
No. 13 Missouri: No. 9 Ole Miss 31, Missouri 3
AP ranking: No. 13 Missouri
Opponent: No. 9 Ole Miss
Final score: Ole Miss 31, Missouri 3
Late-market spread: Ole Miss -4
Opening spread: Ole Miss -7.5
Betting result: Ole Miss wins as the favored team.
Missouri entered Oxford ranked 13th and receiving only four points from the betting market.
The Tigers left having scored three.
That is not three touchdowns. Not three field goals.
Three points.
Missouri actually produced 378 total yards, including 339 passing yards from Austin Simmons. But the Tigers managed only 39 rushing yards, averaged 5.4 yards per play and never reached the end zone.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, rolled up 498 yards and 6.7 yards per play.
The Rebels controlled the line of scrimmage, rushing for 257 yards. Kewan Lacy gained 122 yards on 16 carries, while Makhi Frazier added 101 on 15 attempts.
Missouri running back Jamal Roberts, who had rushed for 211 yards and three touchdowns against Florida two weeks earlier, managed just 39 yards on 20 carries.
Trinidad Chambliss threw three touchdown passes and added another score on the ground. Ole Miss led 21-3 at halftime and never allowed Missouri back into the game.
The turnover margin was even at one apiece. Both teams committed seven penalties for 55 yards.
Neither category explains the result.
Missouri simply could not run the football or finish possessions. Simmons threw an interception at the Ole Miss one-yard line late in the fourth quarter, a fitting conclusion to an afternoon of wasted offensive production.
Cause of death: Rushing-game failure accompanied by terminal scoring inefficiency. Missouri produced 378 yards and converted them into three points.
The Tigers averaged 126 yards per point.
That is an impressive amount of travel for very little reward.
No. 16 Mississippi State: No. 22 LSU 31, Mississippi State 0
AP ranking: No. 16 Mississippi State
Opponent: No. 22 LSU
Final score: LSU 31, Mississippi State 0
Late-market spread: LSU -17.5; consensus close approximately -18
Opening spread: LSU approximately -10.5 to -12
Betting result: LSU wins as a substantial favorite.
Mississippi State entered Baton Rouge ranked six spots ahead of LSU.
The betting market was considerably less impressed.
LSU was favored by approximately 17.5 points, a line that had expanded substantially during the week as injuries devastated Mississippi State’s offense.
The bookmakers had the correct diagnosis.
LSU won 31-0, recording its first SEC shutout since 2007.
The Bulldogs were without starting quarterback Kamario Taylor and leading running back Fluff Bothwell. Replacement quarterback Billy Puckett completed 16 of 26 passes for only 121 yards and an interception.
Mississippi State actually generated 291 total yards, but averaged just 4.3 yards per play and failed to score.
LSU gained 379 yards and averaged 5.5 per snap.
Sam Leavitt was brutally efficient, completing 31 of 38 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Jackson Harris caught six passes for 85 yards and two scores.
The Tigers led 14-0 after the first quarter, 21-0 at halftime and 31-0 entering the fourth.
Mississippi State’s offensive line struggled against LSU’s pressure, and the Bulldogs committed seven penalties for 75 yards.
The turnover battle was even at one apiece, making this less a story of giveaways than offensive dysfunction.
Cause of death: Quarterback depletion and offensive organ failure. Mississippi State was ranked 16th but entered as a massive underdog because its most important offensive personnel were unavailable.
The Bulldogs never seriously threatened the diagnosis.
No. 18 Oklahoma State: No. 20 Houston 35, Oklahoma State 32
AP ranking: No. 18 Oklahoma State
Opponent: No. 20 Houston
Final score: Houston 35, Oklahoma State 32
Late-market spread: Houston -3.5 to -4.5
Opening spread: Houston -3.5
Betting result: Houston wins as the favored team.
Oklahoma State was ranked two spots ahead of Houston.
The betting market made Houston the favorite anyway.
The Cougars justified that assessment with a 35-32 victory, although the Cowboys made them work considerably harder than the final margin suggests.
Both offenses were explosive.
Oklahoma State gained 499 yards and averaged 8.5 yards per play. Houston gained 505 yards and averaged 6.9 per snap.
The difference was possession volume and early execution.
Houston ran 73 plays to Oklahoma State’s 59 and controlled possession for more than 35 minutes.
Conner Weigman threw for 343 yards and five touchdowns, including two to Amare Thomas. Thomas finished with 126 receiving yards, while Trent Walker added 104.
Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker was equally dangerous, throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns. Caleb Hawkins caught seven passes for 125 yards, including a 66-yard touchdown.
But the Cowboys trailed 14-3 at halftime after struggling to finish early possessions.
Oklahoma State also committed two turnovers to Houston’s one, while the Cougars converted all three fourth-down attempts, including an aggressive quarterback sneak from their own territory.
The Cowboys rallied repeatedly, cutting the deficit to 35-32 with 4:59 remaining.
They never got the football back.
Houston moved the chains and exhausted the clock.
Cause of death: First-half offensive inefficiency and an inability to regain possession. Oklahoma State averaged 8.5 yards per play, produced nearly 500 yards and still lost.
Houston simply made better use of its opportunities.
NFL
Three games qualify for this week’s NFL examination: an underdog of at least 3.5 points winning outright.
Arizona and Tennessee cleared the threshold comfortably. Cleveland qualifies using the final Bet365 price of +3.5, although some consensus boards closed Baltimore at -3. The distinction matters because the Browns would not qualify under a strict three-point closing line.
Arizona Cardinals (+12.5): Cardinals 18, Rams 16
Closing spread: Los Angeles Rams -12.5
Opening spread: Rams approximately -10.5
Final score: Arizona 18, Los Angeles 16
Betting result: Arizona wins outright as a 12.5-point underdog.
The biggest NFL betting upset of the week involved a team that never reached the end zone.
Arizona entered Los Angeles as a 12.5-point underdog, having lost four consecutive games.
The Cardinals won 18-16.
All 18 points came from kicker Chad Ryland.
Six field goals. Zero touchdowns. One enormous upset.
Arizona actually outgained Los Angeles 338-286 and controlled possession for nearly 35 minutes. The Cardinals ran 70 plays to the Rams’ 56, although Los Angeles held a slight yards-per-play advantage, 5.1 to 4.8.
Jacoby Brissett threw for 218 yards without a touchdown and with one interception. Bam Knight rushed for 80 yards on 15 carries.
The Rams’ offense was even less impressive.
Matthew Stafford completed 25 of 33 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns, but Los Angeles could not establish consistent offensive rhythm. The Rams gained only 286 yards against a defense that had surrendered at least 30 points in each of its previous four games.
Arizona led 15-9 late in the fourth quarter before Stafford found Colby Parkinson for a touchdown with 52 seconds remaining.
The Rams suddenly led 16-15.
Then Los Angeles committed the fatal mistake.
Brissett completed a 21-yard pass to Jalen Brooks, and the Rams added a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty to the play.
Ryland eventually kicked the winner from 43 yards with three seconds remaining.
Cause of death: Offensive inefficiency and one catastrophic late penalty. Los Angeles was favored by nearly two touchdowns and lost to a team that never scored one.
Six field goals.
The kicker may need his own autopsy table just to rest his leg.
Tennessee Titans (+6.5): Titans 26, Colts 20
Closing spread: Indianapolis -6.5
Opening spread: Indianapolis -3.5
Final score: Tennessee 26, Indianapolis 20
Betting result: Tennessee wins outright as a 6.5-point underdog.
Here is the statistical absurdity of the week.
Indianapolis outgained Tennessee 399-186.
The Colts ran 78 offensive plays to Tennessee’s 45 and possessed the football for more than 38 minutes.
Indianapolis lost.
The Titans entered winless and were getting 6.5 points. They also trailed 13-0 at halftime.
Then the Colts began manufacturing their own defeat.
Daniel Jones threw two interceptions and Indianapolis lost a fumble, giving Tennessee a plus-two turnover margin.
The Titans also received seven points directly from special teams.
With Indianapolis leading 13-13 early in the fourth quarter, Jha’Quan Jackson blocked Rigoberto Sanchez’s punt, and Oluwafemi Oladejo recovered it for a touchdown.
Tennessee suddenly led 20-13 despite producing almost no conventional offense.
The Colts answered when Jonathan Taylor scored from four yards, tying the game at 20 with 5:36 remaining.
Then Joey Slye took over.
Slye kicked a 49-yard field goal with 2:07 remaining and added a 44-yarder with 47 seconds left.
Tennessee quarterback Cam Ward completed only 11 of 22 passes for 102 yards, while the Titans averaged just 4.1 yards per play.
Indianapolis averaged 5.1.
Cause of death: Three turnovers and a blocked punt. The Colts gained 213 more yards, ran 33 additional plays and controlled possession for 17 more minutes.
Tennessee won anyway.
That is the kind of box score that makes an offensive coordinator stare at the ceiling for several hours.
Cleveland Browns (+3.5): Browns 13, Ravens 10
Closing spread: Baltimore -3.5 at Bet365; some consensus boards closed -3
Earlier spread: Baltimore -6.5
Final score: Cleveland 13, Baltimore 10
Betting result: Cleveland wins outright as a 3.5-point underdog at the qualifying sportsbook.
Cleveland’s victory over Baltimore required an unusual combination of defensive football, late-game execution and a penalty on a blocked field goal.
The Ravens led 10-0 after the first quarter.
They never scored again.
Baltimore gained only 235 total yards, while Cleveland managed 237. The Ravens averaged 4.1 yards per play to Cleveland’s 4.0.
Neither offense was particularly interested in entertaining anyone.
Tyler Huntley completed 19 of 31 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown. Derrick Henry rushed for just 58 yards on 17 carries.
Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson threw for 164 yards without a touchdown, but protected the football and helped engineer the final scoring opportunity.
The Browns won the turnover battle 1-0.
Cleveland finally reached the end zone with 8:37 remaining when Audric Estime scored from two yards, tying the game at 10.
The Browns then had a chance to take the lead, but Andre Szmyt missed a 48-yard field goal with just over three minutes remaining.
Baltimore could not capitalize.
Cleveland got another opportunity, and Watson moved the Browns into field-goal range.
With two seconds remaining, Szmyt’s attempt was blocked.
But Baltimore had jumped offside.
The penalty gave Cleveland another chance, and Szmyt connected from 37 yards as time expired.
Cause of death: Offensive disappearance followed by special-teams malpractice. Baltimore led by 10, failed to score over the final three quarters and committed the penalty that gave Cleveland its winning kick.
The Ravens blocked the field goal.
They just did it illegally.
Final Examination
Eleven bodies. Eight ranked college teams. Three NFL favorites.
The college football landscape suffered its most dramatic Saturday of the season. Five of the top seven AP-ranked teams lost, and the No. 1 team fell for the second consecutive week.
Georgia’s defeat was the most expensive betting casualty. The Bulldogs closed as 19.5-point favorites, outgained Auburn by 74 yards and averaged nearly two additional yards per play. Three turnovers and one late personal foul erased all of it.
Notre Dame and Texas supplied the other major double-digit favorite failures. Alabama’s offense disappeared, Missouri somehow converted 378 yards into three points, and Mississippi State never scored at all.
The NFL was almost as ridiculous.
Arizona beat the Rams as a 12.5-point underdog without scoring a touchdown. Tennessee won despite being outgained by 213 yards. Cleveland needed Baltimore to jump offside on a blocked field goal.
There are several lessons here, although none of them are particularly reassuring.
Possession matters. Turnovers matter. Special teams matter. And sometimes, apparently, the only offensive weapon a 12.5-point underdog needs is a kicker with an exceptionally durable leg.
Cause of Death of the Week: Georgia.
The No. 1 Bulldogs were favored by nearly three touchdowns, led 14-0 and still managed to lose at home.
The autopsy reveals three turnovers, a roughing-the-passer penalty and one 34-yard field goal.
That is not an isolated injury.
That is a complete failure to protect the patient.
Morgue closed until next week.
