This Week In Losing Football
Gridiron Autopsy | November 10, 2026 | College Football Week 10 • NFL Week 9
Time to examine this week’s autopsy report in football.
Eight AP-ranked college football teams lost this week, including the No. 1 team in the country, a pair of top-10 programs and two ranked teams that managed to lose despite substantially outgaining their opponents.
Miami’s undefeated season ended at Notre Dame, although the betting market had already identified the Fighting Irish as favorites. Ohio State suffered its second consecutive defeat, this time after surrendering 38 unanswered points to Oregon. Ole Miss was beaten by 35 points at home, and Kentucky managed to possess the football for more than 35 minutes while losing by 28.
Then there was LSU. The Tigers gained 457 yards against Alabama. The Crimson Tide gained only 285. Alabama won by 18.
The NFL, meanwhile, delivered an unusual result. Although Green Bay demolished New England as an underdog, the Packers closed at +3, narrowly missing our established admission requirement. No NFL team qualified under the consensus closing-spread threshold of +3.5 or greater.
Eight bodies. Eight ranked college teams. No qualifying NFL upsets.
The examination begins.
Coverage period: November 3-9, 2026. College rankings reflect the November 1 AP Top 25, not the College Football Playoff rankings or the subsequent November 8 poll. Spreads are archived closing-market prices unless otherwise identified. The distinction matters this week because several higher-ranked teams were actually betting underdogs.
College Football
No. 1 Miami: No. 4 Notre Dame 31, Miami 24
AP ranking: No. 1 Miami
Opponent: No. 4 Notre Dame
Final score: Notre Dame 31, Miami 24
Closing spread: Notre Dame -7.5 at major sportsbooks; -7 in another archived market
Opening spread: Notre Dame approximately -4.5
Betting result: Miami loses as a 7.5-point underdog.
Opponent status: Ranked No. 4.
The No. 1 team in college football has fallen again. For Miami, however, the loss was considerably less surprising to the betting market than the rankings might suggest. Notre Dame entered Saturday ranked fourth but closed as a 7.5-point favorite against the undefeated Hurricanes. The Fighting Irish justified that confidence with a 31-24 victory that ended Miami’s perfect season.
Notre Dame outgained Miami 412-363 and averaged 6.0 yards per play to the Hurricanes’ 5.0. Quarterback CJ Carr completed 29 of 40 passes for 319 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Miami quarterback Darian Mensah threw for 276 yards and three touchdowns, but the Hurricanes committed two turnovers while Notre Dame committed none.
The Irish established control in the second quarter, building a 17-3 halftime lead. Carr then connected with Micah Gilbert for a 20-yard touchdown early in the third, extending the advantage to 24-3.
Miami finally responded. Mensah threw consecutive third-quarter touchdowns to Elija Lofton and Cooper Barkate, cutting the deficit to 24-17. Notre Dame answered with a one-yard touchdown run from Nolan James Jr., restoring its two-touchdown advantage. Miami scored again but could not complete the comeback.
The Hurricanes converted six of 14 third downs, while Notre Dame managed only five of 15. The Irish compensated by converting both fourth-down attempts and protecting the football.
Cause of death: Early offensive paralysis and a minus-two turnover margin. Miami generated enough offense to threaten a comeback but spent most of the afternoon recovering from a 21-point deficit.
The Hurricanes entered undefeated and ranked first. They left South Bend having discovered that the betting market was considerably less impressed than the AP voters.
No. 7 BYU: No. 3 Utah 28, BYU 20
AP ranking: No. 7 BYU
Opponent: No. 3 Utah
Final score: Utah 28, BYU 20
Closing spread: Utah -4 to -4.5, depending on sportsbook
Opening spread: Utah approximately -4.5 to -6
Betting result: BYU loses as an underdog.
Opponent status: Ranked No. 3.
The Holy War arrived with enormous Big 12 implications. Utah entered undefeated and ranked third. BYU was seventh and hoping to reestablish itself as a playoff contender after its double-overtime loss to UCF.
The Cougars actually produced more offense. BYU outgained Utah 391-329, including 272 passing yards from Bear Bachmeier. The Cougars also controlled possession for nearly 32 minutes and converted eight of 15 third downs.
And they lost. The explanation begins with four interceptions.
Bachmeier completed 21 of 35 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown, but Utah repeatedly turned his mistakes into opportunities. The Cougars finished with four turnovers to Utah’s two, surrendering a crucial possession advantage despite producing 62 more yards. BYU also committed 11 penalties for 80 yards, compared with only four for 19 yards by Utah.
The Cougars trailed 14-3 after the first quarter before producing 17 second-quarter points to take a 20-14 halftime lead. Then the offense disappeared. BYU failed to score in either the third or fourth quarter.
Utah scored one touchdown in each, reclaiming the lead and eventually extending it to eight points. The Cougars’ 391 yards were misleading because too many possessions ended without scoring opportunities.
Cause of death: Four-interception trauma accompanied by second-half offensive failure. BYU won the yardage battle and possessed the football longer, but Utah protected its opportunities and scored the only 14 points of the second half.
The Cougars now have consecutive losses. Utah remains undefeated and firmly in control of its postseason destiny.
No. 8 Kentucky: No. 16 Tennessee 34, Kentucky 6
AP ranking: No. 8 Kentucky
Opponent: No. 16 Tennessee
Final score: Tennessee 34, Kentucky 6
Closing spread: Tennessee approximately -6 to -6.5
Opening spread: Tennessee approximately -5.5
Betting result: Kentucky loses as an underdog.
Opponent status: Ranked No. 16.
Kentucky entered Knoxville ranked eighth, eight spots ahead of Tennessee. The betting market made the Volunteers favorites anyway. The Wildcats then spent four quarters explaining why.
Tennessee won 34-6, generating 389 yards of offense while holding Kentucky to 361. The yardage differential was relatively modest, but the efficiency gap was enormous. The Volunteers averaged 7.5 yards per play to Kentucky’s 5.1.
Kentucky ran 71 offensive plays to Tennessee’s 52 and controlled possession for more than 35 minutes. The Wildcats also produced 20 first downs to Tennessee’s 14. None of it mattered.
Kentucky committed three turnovers while Tennessee committed none. The Wildcats also surrendered four sacks and failed on both fourth-down attempts.
The Volunteers opened the scoring with a 66-yard touchdown run from Daune Morris less than a minute into the game. Kentucky responded with two field goals but never reached the end zone.
Tennessee led only 13-6 entering the fourth quarter before scoring 21 unanswered points. Faizon Brandon found Mike Matthews for a 24-yard touchdown, and DeSean Bishop added two five-yard scoring runs.
The Volunteers rushed for 240 yards, compared with Kentucky’s 137, and repeatedly punished the Wildcats with explosive ground plays.
Cause of death: Three-turnover trauma and complete red-zone scoring failure. Kentucky possessed the football longer, ran 19 additional plays and generated nearly as much total yardage.
Tennessee simply turned its possessions into touchdowns. The Wildcats turned theirs into six points. Sometimes the box score makes losing football look complicated. This one did not.
No. 11 Ohio State: Oregon 41, Ohio State 28
AP ranking: No. 11 Ohio State
Opponent: Oregon, unranked
Final score: Oregon 41, Ohio State 28
Closing spread: Ohio State -7.5 in the archived consensus market
Opening spread: Ohio State approximately -7
Betting result: Oregon wins outright as a 7.5-point underdog.
Opponent status: Unranked.
Ohio State has apparently decided that losing to unranked opponents should become a weekly tradition. One week after falling to USC, the Buckeyes returned home favored by more than a touchdown against Oregon.
They led 14-0. Then they surrendered 38 consecutive points. The Ducks won 41-28, handing Ohio State consecutive losses to unranked opponents for the first time since 1992.
Ohio State actually outgained Oregon 413-395 and produced 23 first downs to Oregon’s 22. But the Ducks controlled the ground game, rushing for 108 yards to Ohio State’s 53.
Dylan Raiola threw for 257 yards and two touchdowns, while Dierre Hill Jr. rushed for 75 yards and two scores. Ohio State quarterback Luke Fahey threw for 360 yards and two touchdowns, but the Buckeyes could not establish a consistent running game. Bo Jackson managed only 48 yards on 11 carries.
The turnover margin favored Oregon 1-0. More importantly, the Ducks converted eight of 17 third downs and repeatedly sustained possessions while Ohio State’s defense deteriorated.
After falling behind 14-0, Oregon scored on four of its next five possessions. By the middle of the fourth quarter, the Ducks had built a 38-14 lead. Ohio State scored twice late, but the damage was already complete.
Cause of death: Thirty-eight unanswered points and complete loss of defensive containment. Ohio State gained more total yards but could not stop Oregon’s offensive momentum.
The Buckeyes entered the season as national championship favorites. They now have three losses, including consecutive defeats to unranked opponents. The playoff committee may need to perform its own examination.
No. 12 Ole Miss: No. 2 Georgia 42, Ole Miss 7
AP ranking: No. 12 Ole Miss
Opponent: No. 2 Georgia
Final score: Georgia 42, Ole Miss 7
Closing spread: Georgia -3.5
Betting result: Ole Miss loses as a 3.5-point underdog.
Opponent status: Ranked No. 2.
Ole Miss entered Saturday ranked 12th, playing at home and receiving only 3.5 points against No. 2 Georgia. The Rebels lost by 35. That is not a particularly encouraging relationship between expectations and reality.
Georgia outgained Ole Miss 481-252 and averaged 7.6 yards per play to the Rebels’ 3.7. The Bulldogs also dominated the rushing battle 295-66.
Nate Frazier rushed for 107 yards, while Gunner Stockton threw for 186 yards and four touchdowns on only 15 attempts. Talyn Taylor supplied the explosive offense, catching four passes for 140 yards and three touchdowns.
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss managed only 170 passing yards. The Rebels committed two turnovers while Georgia committed none.
The game was effectively finished by halftime. Georgia scored 14 points in each of the first two quarters, building a 28-0 lead. The Bulldogs added another touchdown in the third before Ole Miss finally reached the end zone early in the fourth. Georgia answered immediately with a 65-yard touchdown pass from Stockton to Taylor.
The Rebels converted six of 16 third downs and struggled to protect their quarterback or establish a rushing attack. Georgia converted seven of 12 third downs and controlled possession for nearly 35 minutes.
Cause of death: Complete rushing-defense failure and explosive passing trauma. Ole Miss was outgained by 229 yards, surrendered nearly eight yards per play and allowed Georgia to score six touchdowns.
The Rebels entered as modest underdogs. They departed having lost by five touchdowns. The betting market expected a competitive game. Georgia apparently did not.
No. 15 LSU: No. 9 Alabama 31, LSU 13
AP ranking: No. 15 LSU
Opponent: No. 9 Alabama
Final score: Alabama 31, LSU 13
Closing spread: LSU -6 at DraftKings
Opening spread: LSU approximately -4.5
Betting result: Alabama wins outright as a six-point underdog.
Opponent status: Ranked No. 9.
Here is the statistical contradiction of the week.
LSU gained 457 yards. Alabama gained 285. LSU ran 81 offensive plays to Alabama’s 53. The Tigers produced 27 first downs to Alabama’s 13. And LSU lost by 18 points.
The Crimson Tide entered Baton Rouge as six-point underdogs and won 31-13 despite being outgained by 172 yards. The explanation begins with turnovers and ends with fourth-down failures. LSU committed two turnovers while Alabama committed none. The Tigers also failed on all four fourth-down attempts.
Sam Leavitt threw for 380 yards, while Jackson Harris caught 11 passes for 166 yards. LSU repeatedly moved the football between the 20-yard lines but could not finish possessions. Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell was far more efficient with his opportunities, completing 17 of 24 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns.
The Crimson Tide averaged 5.4 yards per play, nearly matching LSU’s 5.6 despite running 28 fewer snaps.
LSU trailed only 17-13 entering the fourth quarter. Then Alabama scored 14 unanswered points. The Tigers never answered.
LSU’s 457 yards produced only one touchdown and two field goals, while Alabama converted its limited opportunities into four touchdowns.
Cause of death: Four failed fourth downs and two-turnover trauma. LSU generated 172 more yards and nearly twice as many first downs but repeatedly failed when possessions reached their most important moments.
Alabama did not need to dominate the box score. It needed to dominate the scoreboard. The Tigers supplied an excellent reminder that yardage is not the same thing as points.
No. 19 Missouri: No. 10 Texas 34, Missouri 20
AP ranking: No. 19 Missouri
Opponent: No. 10 Texas
Final score: Texas 34, Missouri 20
Closing spread: Texas -2.5
Opening spread: Texas approximately -2.5
Betting result: Missouri loses as a 2.5-point underdog.
Opponent status: Ranked No. 10.
Missouri entered Saturday ranked 19th and playing at home against No. 10 Texas. The Tigers were receiving only 2.5 points and had an opportunity to deliver a significant SEC victory. For three quarters, the game remained competitive. Then Texas took control. The Longhorns won 34-20, outgaining Missouri approximately 401-336 in the published team statistics.
Arch Manning completed 28 of 38 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Raleek Brown added 85 rushing yards and a touchdown. Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons threw for 252 yards and two touchdowns, including a 72-yard scoring pass to Naeshaun Montgomery.
That explosive play gave Missouri a 20-13 lead during the third quarter. Texas answered with 21 consecutive points.
Manning connected with Jermaine Bishop Jr. for a 25-yard touchdown, then found Brown for another score early in the fourth quarter. Brown eventually added an eight-yard touchdown run to finish the scoring.
The decisive statistic was third-down efficiency. Texas converted six of 13 third downs. Missouri converted only three of 16.
The Tigers also struggled to establish their running game, finishing with 84 rushing yards. Texas committed two turnovers to Missouri’s one, but the Longhorns repeatedly extended possessions when necessary.
Cause of death: Third-down paralysis and fourth-quarter offensive disappearance. Missouri generated a 72-yard touchdown and led late in the third quarter. Then the Tigers stopped scoring. Texas finished with 21 unanswered points and controlled the final period.
The Longhorns were favored by less than a field goal. They won by two touchdowns.
No. 25 Florida: Oklahoma 23, Florida 7
AP ranking: No. 25 Florida
Opponent: Oklahoma, unranked
Final score: Oklahoma 23, Florida 7
Closing spread: Florida approximately -4.5 in one archived market; other late books were closer to -1.5 to -2.5
Earlier spread: Florida -7 was available early in the week
Betting result: Oklahoma wins outright as an underdog.
Opponent status: Unranked.
Florida has become such a regular visitor to the morgue that someone should probably issue the Gators a permanent identification bracelet. The Gators entered Saturday ranked 25th and favored against Oklahoma. They scored seven points.
Oklahoma won 23-7, outgaining Florida 351-203 and controlling possession for nearly 38 minutes. The Sooners ran 73 offensive plays to Florida’s 47. John Mateer completed 21 of 33 passes for 207 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Florida quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. completed only 10 of 22 passes for 133 yards and threw two interceptions.
The Gators finished with two turnovers to Oklahoma’s zero. Florida also struggled to establish its running game, managing only 70 rushing yards. Oklahoma rushed for 144.
The Sooners converted 10 of 18 third downs, while Florida managed only two of nine. That difference allowed Oklahoma to sustain possessions and keep Florida’s offense standing on the sideline.
The Gators briefly made the game competitive when Jadan Baugh scored on a 15-yard run in the second quarter, cutting Oklahoma’s lead to 10-7. Florida never scored again. Oklahoma added a field goal before halftime, then scored 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points to finish the victory.
Cause of death: Offensive possession deprivation and two-interception trauma. Florida ran 26 fewer plays, gained 148 fewer yards and converted only two third downs.
The Gators have now lost four of their last five games. At this point, the medical examiner might consider requesting a permanent parking space.
NFL
The NFL admission requirement remains unchanged: an underdog of at least 3.5 points must win outright.
For the first time in several weeks, the qualifying list is empty. Fifteen NFL games were played from November 5-9. Green Bay supplied the week’s most notable outright underdog victory, defeating New England 45-27.
However, the Packers closed at +3, according to the archived consensus market and multiple individual sportsbook closing prices. Green Bay was available at +3.5 earlier in the betting cycle, but that does not establish a qualifying closing line. The Packers therefore miss admission.
The remaining winners were favored in the archived closing markets, including Buffalo’s 23-6 Monday night victory over Minnesota. No qualifying NFL games means no NFL autopsies this week. The professional morgue gets a rare day off.
Final Examination
Eight bodies. Eight ranked college teams. Zero qualifying NFL upsets.
The college football landscape suffered another significant shakeup. Miami lost its undefeated record at Notre Dame, although the Hurricanes were substantial betting underdogs despite entering ranked first.
BYU and Kentucky also lost to ranked opponents that the betting market favored. Ohio State and Florida supplied the genuine favorite failures.
The Buckeyes lost as 7.5-point favorites after surrendering 38 consecutive points. Florida lost as a favorite while producing only 203 yards and seven points.
Ole Miss was demolished by Georgia, losing by 35 while surrendering nearly eight yards per play. Missouri controlled portions of its game against Texas but disappeared offensively during the fourth quarter.
And then there was LSU. The Tigers gained 457 yards, ran 28 more plays than Alabama and produced 14 additional first downs. They lost by 18.
Cause of Death of the Week: LSU.
Four failed fourth downs. Two turnovers. A 172-yard offensive advantage. An 18-point defeat. There are plenty of ways to lose a football game. Producing 457 yards and 27 first downs while scoring only 13 points is among the more frustrating.
The NFL avoided our established threshold entirely, although Green Bay came close enough to deserve a mention.
Morgue closed until next week.
