Another MLB deadline has come and gone. Anyone move the needle? Short answer–probably not a ton. The best player traded, Trevor Bauer, goes to a team with a five percent chance of making the playoffs. The next best player, Zach Grienke, went to a team with a 99.9 percent chance. Getting him was more about what happens in the playoffs, making Greinke probably the most important player to move. The third-best player moved was the headscratcher last week with the New York Mets acquiring Marcus Stroman.
Oakland, still sitting on the outside looking in despite exceeding expectations, made a couple of moves, bolstering an injury-depleted rotation. They added Homer Bailey last week and then Illinois-native Tanner Roark this week. They really just needed anybody who can eat innings at this point. Still, about a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs.
The Cubs made a couple of decent moves, getting OF Nicholas Castellanos, slumping a tad this year, and swapping some bullpen arms.
The Cardinals stood pat. Much to the chagrin of their fanbase. But in a market where there were only a few needle-movers that actually moved, that may not be an awful thing.
Without getting into contracts, prospects, money, etc. here are the top players to move, sorted by WAR over the last 1 1/2 years, along with each new team’s playoff odds, according to Fangraphs.
Poas | Name | New | Old | 2019 fWAR | 2018 fWar | 1.5yr War | New Team Playoff % |
RHP | Trevor Bauer | Cin | Cle | 2.7 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 5.1 |
RHP | Zach Greinke | Hou | Ari | 3.6 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 99.9 |
RHP | Marcus Stroman | NYM | Tor | 2.9 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 19.1 |
2B | Scotter Gennett | SF | Cin | -0.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 5.9 |
OF | Nicholas Castellanos | ChC | Det | 1 | 3 | 4 | 78.6 |
RHP | Tanner Roark | Oak | Cin | 1.8 | 2 | 3.8 | 19.9 |
OF | Cory Dickerson | Phi | Pit | 1 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 23 |
RHP | Mike Leake | Ari | Sea | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 6.6 |
1B | Jesus Aguilar | TB | Mil | -0.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 56.4 |
OF | Yasiel Puig | Cle | Cin | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 81.3 |
OF | Franmill Reyes | Cle | SD | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 81.3 |
RHP | Andrew Cashner | Bos | Bal | 1.7 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 45.2 |
C | Martin Maldanado | Hou | ChC | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 99.9 |
RHP | Sam Dyson | Min | SF | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 97.5 |
RHP | Aaron Sanchez | Hou | Tor | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 99.9 |
LHP | Derek Holland | ChC | SF | -0.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 78.6 |
OF | Tony Kemp | ChC | Hou | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 78.6 |
RHP | Jordan Lyles | Mil | Pit | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 38.7 |
LHP | Jason Vargas | Phi | NYM | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 23 |
UTL | Eric Sogard | TB | Tor | 2.1 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 56.4 |
RHP | Chris Martin | Atl | Tex | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 98.5 |
LHP | Roenis Elias | Was | Sea | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 75.3 |
RHP | Homer Bailey | Oak | KC | 1.2 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 19.9 |
RHP | Carl Edwards Jr | SD | ChC | -0.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1 |
LHP | Mike Montgomery | KC | ChC | -0.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
LHP | Adam Kolarek | LAD | TB | 0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |
RHP | Dan Winkler | SF | Atl | -0.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | |
RHP | Mark Melancon | ATL | SF | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | |
RHP | Hunter Wood | Cle | TB | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | |
RHP | Zac Gallen | Ari | Mia | 0.7 | 0 | 0.7 | |
RHP | Shane Green | Atl | Det | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.6 | |
RHP | Daniel Hudson | Was | Tor | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.3 | |
INF | Christian Arroyo | Cle | TB | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
OF | Derek Fisher | Tor | Hou | 0.2 | 0 | 0.2 |
As for the prospects that moved, the top guys were Taylor Trammell, Jazz Chisolm (great name), and Jesus Sanchez. The Marlins got the latter two. I’m personally a fan of Logan Allen too. Fangraphs has a breakdown of the prospects here.