MLB Trade Deadline

Another MLB deadline has come and gone. Anyone move the needle? Short answer–probably not a ton. The best player traded, Trevor Bauer, goes to a team with a five percent chance of making the playoffs. The next best player, Zach Grienke, went to a team with a 99.9 percent chance. Getting him was more about what happens in the playoffs, making Greinke probably the most important player to move. The third-best player moved was the headscratcher last week with the New York Mets acquiring Marcus Stroman.

Oakland, still sitting on the outside looking in despite exceeding expectations, made a couple of moves, bolstering an injury-depleted rotation. They added Homer Bailey last week and then Illinois-native Tanner Roark this week. They really just needed anybody who can eat innings at this point. Still, about a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Cubs made a couple of decent moves, getting OF Nicholas Castellanos, slumping a tad this year, and swapping some bullpen arms.

The Cardinals stood pat. Much to the chagrin of their fanbase. But in a market where there were only a few needle-movers that actually moved, that may not be an awful thing.

Without getting into contracts, prospects, money, etc. here are the top players to move, sorted by WAR over the last 1 1/2 years, along with each new team’s playoff odds, according to Fangraphs.

PoasNameNewOld2019 fWAR2018 fWar1.5yr WarNew Team Playoff %
RHPTrevor BauerCinCle2.
RHPZach GreinkeHouAri3.62.96.599.9
RHPMarcus StromanNYMTor2.91.44.319.1
2BScotter GennettSFCin-
OFNicholas CastellanosChCDet13478.6
RHPTanner RoarkOakCin1.823.819.9
OFCory DickersonPhiPit12.73.723
RHPMike LeakeAriSea1.
1BJesus AguilarTBMil-
OFYasiel PuigCleCin0.81.82.681.3
OFFranmill ReyesCleSD1.41.22.681.3
RHPAndrew CashnerBosBal1.70.62.345.2
CMartin MaldanadoHouChC0.
RHPSam DysonMinSF1.10.51.697.5
RHPAaron SanchezHouTor0.90.61.599.9
LHPDerek HollandChCSF-
OFTony KempChCHou0.50.91.478.6
RHPJordan LylesMilPit0.80.61.438.7
LHPJason VargasPhiNYM1.10.21.323
UTLEric SogardTBTor2.1-0.81.356.4
RHPChris MartinAtlTex0.
LHPRoenis EliasWasSea0.
RHPHomer BaileyOakKC1.2-
RHPCarl Edwards JrSDChC-
LHPMike MontgomeryKCChC-0.51.510
LHPAdam KolarekLADTB00.90.9
RHPDan WinklerSFAtl-
RHPMark MelanconATLSF0.50.30.8
RHPHunter WoodCleTB0.20.50.7
RHPZac GallenAriMia0.700.7
RHPShane GreenAtlDet0.7-0.10.6
RHPDaniel HudsonWasTor0.4-0.10.3
INFChristian ArroyoCleTB00.20.2
OFDerek FisherTorHou0.200.2

As for the prospects that moved, the top guys were Taylor Trammell, Jazz Chisolm (great name), and Jesus Sanchez. The Marlins got the latter two. I’m personally a fan of Logan Allen too. Fangraphs has a breakdown of the prospects here.


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