World Cup: 538 True Odds

The World Cup is upon us. If you are new to soccer betting, welcome to the three-way action. No, not that one you got denied that one time in college, but win, lose, draw betting.

Vigs can get a little wonky in this format, so one of the things I like to look at is 538’s Win Probabilities. I take their numbers, throw them in a betting calculator, and get the no-vig true odds. It is not an all-encompassing handicap, but it is a useful starting tool. How they come up with their ratings is explained on their page. Those SPI ratings are then plugged into a formula to figure win probabilities.

Happy hunting.

Saturday, Nov. 26

WinDraw
France-104+270
Denmark+354
WinDraw
Argentina-104+244
Mexico+400

Tuesday, Nov. 22

WinDraw
Argentina-257+400
Saudi Arabia+1150
WinDraw
Denmark+100+244
Tunisia+376
WinDraw
Mexico+138+233
Poland+257
WinDraw
France-222+316
Australia+900

538 sees value on: Saudi +2200, Draw +700; Tunisia +575, Draw +285; Mexico +165; Australia +1300, Draw +500.

Monday, Nov. 21

WinDraw
England-170+300
Iran+733
WinDraw
Senegal+354+270
Netherlands-104
WinDraw
USA+122+244
Wales+284

Like I said, I would never use this as a blind handicap, but looking at the Monday board the value would show on both draw and Iran in match one; Senegal and draw in the second match; and USA in match three.

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