The World Cup is upon us. If you are new to soccer betting, welcome to the three-way action. No, not that one you got denied that one time in college, but win, lose, draw betting.

Vigs can get a little wonky in this format, so one of the things I like to look at is 538’s Win Probabilities. I take their numbers, throw them in a betting calculator, and get the no-vig true odds. It is not an all-encompassing handicap, but it is a useful starting tool. How they come up with their ratings is explained on their page. Those SPI ratings are then plugged into a formula to figure win probabilities.

Happy hunting.

Saturday, Nov. 26

	Win	Draw
France	-104	+270
Denmark	+354

	Win	Draw
Argentina	-104	+244
Mexico	+400

Tuesday, Nov. 22

	Win	Draw
Argentina	-257	+400
Saudi Arabia	+1150

	Win	Draw
Denmark	+100	+244
Tunisia	+376

	Win	Draw
Mexico	+138	+233
Poland	+257

	Win	Draw
France	-222	+316
Australia	+900

538 sees value on: Saudi +2200, Draw +700; Tunisia +575, Draw +285; Mexico +165; Australia +1300, Draw +500.

Monday, Nov. 21

	Win	Draw
England	-170	+300
Iran	+733

	Win	Draw
Senegal	+354	+270
Netherlands	-104

	Win	Draw
USA	+122	+244
Wales	+284

Like I said, I would never use this as a blind handicap, but looking at the Monday board the value would show on both draw and Iran in match one; Senegal and draw in the second match; and USA in match three.