Time to examine this week’s autopsy report in football.
Last week gave us carnage. This week decided to improve the sample size.
Five AP-ranked college teams went down, including a top-10 favorite that lost by double digits at home despite laying more than two touchdowns. Another ranked team lost outright as a double-digit favorite. Meanwhile, the NFL supplied four favorites of at least 3.5 points that wound up staring at the ceiling while the underdogs walked out with the money and the win.
Gloves on. Let us begin.
College Football
No. 7 LSU: No. 8 Ole Miss 32, LSU 24
AP ranking: No. 7 LSU
Opponent: No. 8 Ole Miss
Result: Ole Miss 32, LSU 24
Betting line: LSU -3 near kickoff
Opponent status: Ranked No. 8
This one does not qualify as a shocking upset by ranking, but the betting market still sent LSU into Oxford as a three-point favorite. The line briefly dipped to LSU -1.5 during the week when quarterback Sam Leavitt appeared on the injury report, then returned to -3 once his status improved.
Ole Miss did not care.
The Rebels outgained LSU 426-330 and averaged 5.8 yards per play to LSU’s 4.7. Trinidad Chambliss shredded the Tigers for 363 passing yards and two touchdowns, while Ole Miss built a 24-7 halftime lead.
LSU made the body twitch.
The Tigers scored 17 unanswered points after halftime and tied the game at 24 with 11:23 remaining. But Chambliss answered with a 14-yard touchdown run, Ole Miss added the two-point conversion, and LSU’s final possession died in the end zone when Leavitt threw an interception with 1:03 remaining.
Turnovers were even at one apiece, so there is no easy giveaway explanation. Ole Miss simply generated more offense, particularly through the air, with Traylon Ray and Caleb Odom combining for 203 receiving yards.
LSU ran 70 plays and possessed the ball slightly longer. It just did less with them.
Cause of death: Inefficient offense with a terminal secondary condition.
LSU survived the initial hemorrhage and somehow got back to even. Then Chambliss reopened the wound.
No. 9 Texas A&M: Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21
AP ranking: No. 9 Texas A&M
Opponent: Kentucky
Result: Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21
Betting line: Texas A&M -17.5 in the late pregame market
Opponent status: Unranked
This is the centerpiece of the examination.
Texas A&M was laying 17.5 points at home. Kentucky had just lost 45-17 to Alabama. The Aggies were 2-0, ranked ninth and priced by the market as if Saturday afternoon at Kyle Field were little more than an administrative requirement.
Instead, Kentucky scored 21 unanswered points in the third quarter and buried the Aggies.
The raw yardage disguises what happened. Texas A&M actually outgained Kentucky 423-408, but needed 84 plays to do it. Kentucky produced nearly the same yardage on only 54 plays, averaging a staggering 7.6 yards per snap compared with A&M’s 5.0.
Kenny Minchey was surgical: 14-of-18 for 252 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed attempted 49 passes, completed only 26 and threw two interceptions. Kentucky finished plus-two in turnover margin.
The fatal stretch came immediately after halftime. Minchey hit Kenny Darby for a 42-yard touchdown, then CJ Baxter added touchdown runs of three and two yards. A 7-7 game became 28-7 before Texas A&M could find the antidote.
The Aggies scored twice in the fourth quarter, but those points merely made the corpse more presentable.
Kentucky entered with only a 12 percent implied win probability in the late market. Then it went into Kyle Field and won by 10.
Cause of death: Explosive-play poisoning aggravated by two turnovers.
When a 17.5-point favorite loses outright by double digits, the coroner does not need a second opinion.
No. 16 SMU: No. 23 Louisville 41, SMU 31
AP ranking: No. 16 SMU
Opponent: No. 23 Louisville
Result: Louisville 41, SMU 31
Betting line: Louisville -1.5 shortly before kickoff
Opponent status: Ranked No. 23
Here is the oddball entry of the week: the rankings said SMU was substantially better, but the betting market actually made No. 23 Louisville a slight home favorite. CBS Sports listed the Cardinals at -1.5 roughly 15 minutes before the scheduled kickoff.
The bookmakers had the right team, although they underestimated the margin.
SMU gained 479 yards to Louisville’s 442 and ran 80 offensive plays to Louisville’s 60. That normally looks like winning football.
Then you reach the turnover column.
SMU: three. Louisville: zero.
Kevin Jennings threw two interceptions and the Mustangs lost a fumble. Louisville also turned its limited opportunities into bigger chunks, averaging 7.4 yards per play compared with SMU’s 6.0.
The real murder weapon was the Louisville running game. Keyjuan Brown needed only 10 carries to produce 163 yards and two touchdowns, including scoring runs of 58 and 53 yards. Isaac Brown added 67 yards and a 27-yard fourth-quarter touchdown.
SMU actually took a 31-28 lead with 11:39 remaining. Less than two minutes later, Keyjuan Brown ripped off the 53-yard score. Louisville followed with Isaac Brown’s 27-yard touchdown, and Jennings’ final comeback attempt ended with an interception.
The Mustangs had plenty of offense. Kendrick Raphael ran for 197 yards and three touchdowns.
They simply spent too much of the afternoon handing possessions away while Louisville turned open grass into express lanes.
Cause of death: Three turnovers and blunt-force explosive runs.
The rankings called it an upset.
The betting market had already smelled something.
No. 22 Houston: No. 13 Texas Tech 28, Houston 26
AP ranking: No. 22 Houston
Opponent: No. 13 Texas Tech
Result: Texas Tech 28, Houston 26
Betting line: Texas Tech -8.5 in the game-day market
Opponent status: Ranked No. 13
Some losses require an extensive forensic report.
Houston’s requires approximately three inches.
The Cougars entered Lubbock as roughly 8.5-point underdogs, so a road loss to No. 13 Texas Tech was hardly unexpected. What was unexpected was how thoroughly Houston flirted with stealing the game anyway.
Houston outgained Texas Tech 458-425, possessed the ball for more than 33 minutes and actually won the turnover battle 2-1. Conner Weigman completed 27 of 38 passes for 283 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Houston also led 10-0 after the first quarter and 17-14 late in the second.
Texas Tech’s offense was simply more explosive, averaging 7.1 yards per play despite running only 60 plays. Will Hammond threw for 257 yards, while Kenny Johnson averaged more than 28 yards per reception.
Still, Houston refused to die.
Trailing 28-20 with 53 seconds left, Weigman hit Patrick Overmyer for a 10-yard touchdown. The Cougars went for two and the tie.
Weigman kept it.
Texas Tech linebacker Austin Romaine met him at the goal line.
Replay upheld the call: short.
Houston’s subsequent onside kick went out of bounds, and that was that.
The Cougars covered comfortably and statistically played well enough to win. This was not self-destruction. It was a ranked team losing to a higher-ranked opponent because one enormous snap came down to inches.
Cause of death: Goal-line cardiac arrest.
Houston came within the width of a football of overtime.
No. 25 Virginia: West Virginia 38, Virginia 27
AP ranking: No. 25 Virginia
Opponent: West Virginia
Result: West Virginia 38, Virginia 27
Betting line: Virginia -10.5 in the late afternoon market
Opponent status: Unranked
Virginia entered the Duke’s Mayo Classic ranked No. 25, undefeated and favored by 10.5 points in an updated market only a few hours before kickoff.
West Virginia apparently viewed all three of those facts as suggestions.
The Mountaineers rolled up 437 yards, averaged 6.4 yards per play, did not turn the ball over and scored on offense repeatedly after falling behind 14-7 in the first quarter.
Quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. administered most of the damage personally.
Hawkins threw for 190 yards and two touchdowns while running for another 123 yards and three scores. Cam Cook also rushed for 123 yards, giving West Virginia two separate 100-yard rushers.
Virginia was not awful offensively. The Cavaliers produced 354 yards and never committed a turnover. But they averaged only 5.1 yards per play, and their defense could not contain Hawkins either inside or outside structure.
West Virginia erased the early deficit with 14 unanswered second-quarter points, then broke a 21-21 tie with another touchdown just before the end of the third. Hawkins added a five-yard touchdown with 5:32 remaining, and a late field goal pushed the margin to 38-21.
Virginia scored with 29 seconds left, cosmetic surgery on an already deceased favorite.
There was no turnover fluke here. No blocked punt. No bizarre replay ruling.
West Virginia simply outgained a double-digit favorite by 83 yards and ran the football directly through it.
Cause of death: Quarterback containment failure.
Michael Hawkins spent Saturday evening treating Virginia’s front seven like traffic cones.
NFL
Our NFL section has one admission requirement: an underdog of at least 3.5 points must win the game outright.
Week 2 gave us four.
Cleveland Browns (+8.5): Browns 23, Buccaneers 19
Closing-area spread: Tampa Bay -8.5
Result: Cleveland 23, Tampa Bay 19
Cleveland entered Sunday as an 8.5-point underdog and spent most of the afternoon playing exactly like one.
The Browns failed to score a touchdown on their first eight possessions. Tampa Bay led 16-6 in the third quarter, Cleveland’s running backs were producing essentially nothing, and the Buccaneers appeared to have complete control without doing anything particularly spectacular.
Then Denzel Boston detonated the script.
Boston caught a short pass from Deshaun Watson and turned it into a 55-yard touchdown, breaking three tackles and tying the game at 16. After Tampa Bay retook the lead with a field goal, Watson directed a 12-play, 68-yard drive and found Blake Whiteheart for the winning 17-yard touchdown.
Cleveland only gained 267 yards to Tampa Bay’s 313 and averaged 4.9 yards per play. But the Browns protected the football, intercepted Baker Mayfield once and sacked him three times. Tampa Bay repeatedly settled for field goals, getting four of them from Chase McLaughlin.
Then came a two-hour weather delay during Tampa Bay’s potential game-winning possession.
When play resumed, the Buccaneers drove inside the Cleveland 20 but failed on fourth down. Mayfield finished with only 182 passing yards and the interception.
Watson, meanwhile, completed 24 of 30 passes for 238 yards, two touchdowns and no picks.
Cause of death: Red-zone anemia.
Tampa Bay moved the football farther.
Cleveland actually finished drives.
New Orleans Saints (+8.5): Saints 24, Ravens 17
Closing-area spread: Baltimore -8.5
Result: New Orleans 24, Baltimore 17
Baltimore led 14-3 late in the second quarter and entered halftime ahead 14-6.
Then the Ravens essentially stopped possessing the football.
New Orleans dominated the late portions of the game, erasing a 17-9 deficit with 15 unanswered fourth-quarter points. Tyler Shough found Chris Olave for a 21-yard touchdown, Travis Etienne converted the two-point try, and suddenly the game was tied.
The decisive New Orleans drive came late.
On third-and-eight, Shough hit Juwan Johnson for a 26-yard catch-and-run to the Baltimore four. Four plays later, Shough squeezed across on fourth down for the go-ahead touchdown with 1:28 remaining. The call survived replay.
Baltimore still had Lamar Jackson and enough time to respond.
Jackson instead threw an interception at the Saints’ seven-yard line with 20 seconds remaining.
The statistical picture explains the strangulation. New Orleans converted 8-of-15 third downs, committed no turnovers and possessed the ball for 32:45. Baltimore committed seven penalties, including a defensive hold that erased what would have been a stop on the Saints’ game-tying two-point conversion.
The Ravens had held the football for only 96 seconds in the entire fourth quarter before receiving it after New Orleans’ winning touchdown.
Cause of death: Possession deprivation.
Baltimore had Lamar Jackson.
For most of the fourth quarter, it did not have the football.
Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5): Raiders 26, Chargers 14
Closing-area spread: Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
Result: Las Vegas 26, Los Angeles 14
For the second straight week, the Chargers entered as substantial favorites.
For the second straight week, somebody should probably check whether the betting market has their phone number blocked.
Los Angeles was favored by 6.5 points against Las Vegas. Instead, the Raiders won by 12 and improved to 2-0.
The box score looks relatively even until one column starts flashing red.
Turnovers: Chargers three, Raiders one.
Justin Herbert threw two interceptions, and Los Angeles also lost a fumble. Rookie defensive back Hezekiah Masses intercepted Herbert twice, helping turn a game with nearly identical total yardage into a comfortable Raiders victory.
Las Vegas gained 305 yards. Los Angeles gained 310.
The Raiders averaged 5.1 yards per play. The Chargers averaged 5.0.
That is almost a statistical dead heat.
Kirk Cousins supplied the separation, throwing for 253 yards and three touchdowns, including a 40-yard score to Tre Tucker and two touchdowns to Cody White. Tucker finished with 119 receiving yards.
The Chargers took a 14-10 lead in the third quarter, but Las Vegas scored the final 16 points. White caught the go-ahead touchdown late in the third, added another with 3:03 remaining, and an offensive holding penalty in the end zone produced a safety to close the scoring.
Los Angeles even had six fumbles, losing only one of them.
Cause of death: Ball-security trauma.
The teams gained almost exactly the same amount of ground.
One of them kept giving the ball to the other.
Minnesota Vikings (+4.5): Vikings 9, Bears 3
Closing-area spread: Chicago -4.5
Result: Minnesota 9, Chicago 3
One week after Chicago scored 59 points, the Bears entered their home opener as 4.5-point favorites.
They scored three.
Not three touchdowns.
Three points.
Minnesota won without reaching the end zone itself, taking a 9-3 slugfest on three Will Reichard field goals.
Chicago actually outgained Minnesota 297-246 and possessed the football for more than 32 minutes. That is where the favorable evidence ends.
The Bears committed two turnovers to Minnesota’s zero, were penalized eight times for 58 yards and averaged only 4.2 yards per play despite running 70 snaps.
Caleb Williams completed 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards with an interception before leaving the game. Backup Tyson Bagent moved Chicago into Minnesota territory in the final minute, but Dallas Turner sacked him on the game’s final play.
Minnesota quarterback Carson Wentz hardly authored a masterpiece: 11-of-20 for 143 yards. Aaron Jones did enough on the ground with 105 yards, and Minnesota avoided the catastrophic mistake that Chicago eventually supplied.
The Bears’ Week 1 offensive fireworks disappeared completely against a divisional opponent.
Reichard hit from 35, 49 and 39 yards.
Cairo Santos made a 50-yarder.
That was the entire scoring summary.
No touchdowns. Four field goals. One favored team staring at a scoreboard that looked more like a baseball game.
Cause of death: Offensive disappearance.
After scoring 59 one week earlier, Chicago produced three.
The body was identified mostly through dental records.
Final Examination
This week’s report gives us nine total bodies:
Five ranked college teams. Four NFL favorites.
The most severe betting casualties were obvious. Texas A&M lost outright as a 17.5-point home favorite. Virginia went down laying double digits. Tampa Bay and Baltimore both fell as 8.5-point NFL favorites.
But the recurring lesson is that not every death arrives by the same mechanism.
Texas A&M lost the turnover and efficiency battles. SMU gained plenty of yards but handed Louisville three extra possessions. Houston played well and died inches from the goal line. Virginia simply got run over. Baltimore barely possessed the ball in the fourth quarter. Los Angeles could not protect it at all.
Different wounds.
Same destination.
The morgue is officially open for business.
