College football’s October 31 schedule features five games in which both teams appear in the top 25 of at least one of the AP, Coaches or SP+ systems. Arizona–Texas Tech and Florida–Georgia are conventional ranked matchups, while three games qualify through cross-poll differences: Iowa is ranked by the Coaches and SP+, Oregon remains No. 12 in SP+, and USC is No. 25 in the Coaches Poll and No. 18 in SP+.
Rankings reflect the polls released Sunday, October 25, and the SP+ update available Wednesday morning. SP+ is a predictive efficiency rating rather than a résumé ranking.
| Matchup | AP | Coaches | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin at Iowa | Wisconsin 25, Iowa NR | Wisconsin NR, Iowa 24 | Wisconsin 40, Iowa 23 |
| Arizona at Texas Tech | Arizona 22, Texas Tech 13 | Arizona 21, Texas Tech 14 | Arizona 14, Texas Tech 9 |
| Northwestern at Oregon | Northwestern 20, Oregon NR | Northwestern 18, Oregon NR | Northwestern 20, Oregon 12 |
| Florida vs. Georgia | Florida 17, Georgia 3 | Florida 20, Georgia 3 | Florida 31, Georgia 2 |
| Ohio State at USC | Ohio State 2, USC NR | Ohio State 2, USC 25 | Ohio State 1, USC 18 |
No. 25 Wisconsin at No. 24 Coaches Iowa
Saturday, October 31 — 11 a.m. CT — FOX/FOX One
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa
Wednesday line: Iowa -3.5; total: 36.5
The Heartland Trophy game arrives with a total more commonly associated with a halftime score in the modern Big Ten, and the number is justified. SP+ ranks Iowa 23rd overall with the No. 10 defense and No. 62 offense. Wisconsin is 40th overall, but its defense ranks ninth and its offense 93rd. This game will be won through field position, turnovers and whichever offense can avoid losing snaps.
Wisconsin enters with the stronger momentum after a 24-7 win over then-No. 16 USC. The Badgers intercepted Jayden Maiava twice, recorded five sacks and held the Trojans to minus-18 rushing yards. Sebastian Cheeks produced 2.5 sacks, while quarterback Colton Joseph completed 12 of 14 passes with a touchdown. Wisconsin did not ask Joseph to create explosive volume; it used defense and favorable field position to let him operate efficiently.
Iowa is coming off a 13-10 loss at Minnesota in which three interceptions and a blocked punt overwhelmed another strong defensive performance. Kirk Ferentz announced Tuesday that Hank Brown will return to the starting quarterback role. The more damaging news is that leading rusher Kamari Moulton will miss the remainder of the season with an upper-body injury. Nathan McNeil, Braeden Jackson and Xavier Williams must replace a back who had already produced two 100-yard games.
Wisconsin will challenge Brown to win from the pocket while loading the box against Iowa’s reshuffled backfield. Iowa’s defense must create the same problem for Joseph: remove the run and force him into third-and-long, where the Badgers cannot hide behind a 12-for-14 stat line built on controlled situations.
The official Big Ten availability reports were not due until Wednesday evening, so further supporting-player changes remained possible Wednesday morning. The known Moulton absence is the most consequential personnel development. In a game with so little expected scoring, one short-field touchdown could be enough to keep the Heartland Trophy.
What decides it: Turnovers and hidden yardage. Neither offense is built to recover from giving away a possession or 40 yards of field position.
No. 22 Arizona at No. 13 Texas Tech
Saturday, October 31 — 11 a.m. CT — ESPN/ESPN app
Galaxy Stadium, Lubbock, Texas
Wednesday line: Texas Tech -3.5; total: 54.5
Arizona and Texas Tech share 6-1 records and a 3-1 mark in Big 12 play, but they arrive in Lubbock from opposite directions. Arizona dismantled Iowa State 39-3, jumping ahead 15-0 and controlling both sides of the ball. Noah Fifita completed 27 of 34 passes for 308 yards and two touchdowns, including a 71-yard strike to Isaiah Mizell. The Wildcats matched their best start since 2014 and climbed to No. 14 in SP+.
Texas Tech suffered its first loss, 37-24 at Cincinnati, after entering as a double-digit favorite. Will Hammond passed for 227 yards but committed two turnovers, and the Red Raiders allowed 252 rushing yards at 6.1 per carry. Cincinnati scored 21 points in the second quarter and took a 24-6 halftime lead, forcing Texas Tech away from the balanced script that helped produce its 6-0 start.
SP+ sees a genuine top-15 matchup. Texas Tech is ninth overall with the No. 10 offense and No. 23 defense; Arizona is 14th with the No. 14 offense and No. 24 defense. The difference may be how each handles early-down runs. J’Koby Williams averaged more than seven yards per carry against Cincinnati but received only 11 attempts once the score widened. Texas Tech needs him involved long enough to keep Arizona from designing every pressure around Hammond.
Arizona’s advantage is quarterback experience. Fifita has seen nearly every coverage and pressure look during five seasons in the same program. If Texas Tech brings extra rushers, he can locate Mizell and the underneath answers before the pocket closes. The Red Raiders’ answer is home pressure and a pass rush that cannot allow Fifita to set his feet repeatedly.
The first mandatory Big 12 report was scheduled for Wednesday evening. Arizona had seven players listed out for Iowa State, while Texas Tech entered Cincinnati without several receivers, linemen and running back Cameron Dickey; their October 31 designations were not yet official Wednesday morning. havoc
What decides it: Texas Tech’s early-down balance. Williams must keep the Red Raiders out of the predictable passing situations that created last week’s collapse.
No. 20 Northwestern at No. 12 SP+ Oregon
Saturday, October 31 — 2:30 p.m. CT — Peacock/NBC Sports Network
Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
Wednesday line: Oregon -3.5; total: 47.5
No game better illustrates the difference between résumé and projection. Northwestern is 6-1, ranked in both human polls and riding a four-game winning streak. Oregon is 4-3, absent from both polls and 1-2 in October. Yet SP+ still rates the Ducks 12th and the market makes them a field-goal favorite at Autzen Stadium.
Northwestern’s offense is no longer merely surviving behind its defense. Aidan Chiles accounted for five touchdowns and 302 total yards in a 42-14 win over Rutgers, earning his second Big Ten offensive player of the week award. Chiles completed 19 of 25 passes for 219 yards and three scores while rushing for a career-high 83 yards and two touchdowns. He leads the Big Ten with a 71.3% completion rate and has rushed for a touchdown in seven consecutive games.
The Northwestern defense supplied four sacks, three takeaways and allowed only 100 passing yards against Rutgers. That balanced performance is the clearest threat to Oregon: the Wildcats can force the Ducks to chase points while attacking a quarterback room that has not found stability.
Dan Lanning said Monday that he does not expect Dante Moore to return this season from the injury sustained at USC. Oregon has started Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas during Moore’s absence, and the offense has struggled to finish drives consistently. Raiola completed 27 of 41 passes for 246 yards in last week’s 21-10 loss at Illinois, but Oregon converted only four of 15 third downs and missed three field goals.
SP+ still respects Oregon because its defense ranks 11th and its underlying roster strength remains substantial. Northwestern must protect Chiles against that speed and avoid treating last week’s offensive eruption as its automatic baseline. Oregon’s path is to contain Chiles on zone-read concepts, generate easier throws for Raiola and finish the drives that died in Illinois territory.
What decides it: Quarterback efficiency. Chiles is playing with confidence and continuity; Oregon must receive steadier red-zone and third-down execution from Raiola.
No. 17 Florida vs. No. 3 Georgia
Saturday, October 31 — 2:30 p.m. CT — ABC/ESPN app
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Wednesday line: Georgia -11.5; total: 55.5
Florida–Georgia moves to Atlanta while Jacksonville’s stadium is renovated, but the rivalry carries familiar stakes. Georgia is 6-1 and coming off an open week after a 27-24 loss to Auburn knocked it from No. 1. Florida is 5-2 and also rested after rallying from a 17-3 deficit to beat Texas 27-24 in Austin.
The matchup looks far different depending on the ranking system. Georgia is third in both human polls and second in SP+, with the model placing its offense second and defense fourth. Florida is No. 17 in the AP poll and No. 20 in the Coaches Poll but only 31st in SP+, including 50th defensively. Georgia averages 43 points and 469.9 yards while allowing 15.9 points. The Bulldogs’ clearest concern is ball security: Gunner Stockton committed three turnovers against Auburn.
Florida’s quarterback decision remained open Wednesday morning. Aaron Philo, who started the first six games, has been recovering from a throwing-shoulder injury. Tramell Jones Jr. completed 22 of 35 passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns in his first start against Texas, but he also entered this week managing normal postgame soreness. Coach Jon Sumrall said both quarterbacks were receiving first- and second-team repetitions. Receiver Vernell Brown III, sidelined for three games with a knee injury, looked closer to returning during Monday’s practice.
Jadan Baugh is Florida’s stabilizer. He ran for 91 yards and a touchdown against Texas and must prevent Georgia from turning the game into an extended passing test. The Bulldogs have also managed injuries in their backfield: Nate Frazier was limited against Auburn, while Chauncey Bowens missed the previous two games. Georgia’s open date offered valuable recovery time.
Florida’s upset formula is the one Auburn used: pressure Stockton into mistakes, control the game with the run and stay within one possession into the fourth quarter. Georgia’s answer is to protect the football and use its balance to attack a Florida defense that SP+ ranks 50th nationally.
What decides it: Stockton’s ball security. Georgia owns the deeper and more efficient roster, but turnovers can erase that advantage quickly in a rivalry game.
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 25 Coaches USC
Saturday, October 31 — 6:30 p.m. CT — NBC/Peacock
United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
Wednesday line: Ohio State -6.5; total: 51.5
Ohio State remains No. 1 in SP+ and No. 2 in both human polls, but its first game without Julian Sayin turns a comfortable-looking matchup into the weekend’s largest unknown. Sayin injured his throwing arm during the Buckeyes’ 19-15 victory at Indiana and is expected to miss several weeks. Ryan Day had not announced whether freshman Luke Fahey or sophomore Tavien St. Clair would start by Wednesday morning.
Fahey has been the first quarterback off the bench and has completed 9 of 13 passes for 203 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. St. Clair arrived with the stronger recruiting profile but less game exposure. Whichever quarterback starts inherits Jeremiah Smith and an offense SP+ ranks fourth, but the game plan should lean more heavily on protection, field position and a defense ranked first nationally by the model.
USC’s urgency is obvious after a 24-7 loss at Wisconsin. The Trojans entered that game averaging 36.4 points, then threw two interceptions, allowed five sacks and finished with minus-18 rushing yards. That result exposed both sides of USC’s profile: SP+ ranks the offense ninth but the defense 39th. Jayden Maiava cannot afford another turnover-heavy performance when Ohio State’s defense is capable of winning the game independently of its new quarterback.
The Trojans’ offensive line appeared on the Joe Moore Award midseason honor roll despite losing starting center Kilian O’Connor before the season. That group must rebound from the Wisconsin collapse and give Maiava enough time to challenge Ohio State vertically. USC must also stop the run without committing extra coverage help away from Smith.
The line still makes Ohio State nearly a touchdown favorite because the Buckeyes own the country’s best defensive profile and a much larger margin for error. USC’s path is to force the replacement quarterback into an early mistake, create crowd pressure and turn the night into a fourth-quarter shootout. Ohio State’s path is simpler: protect the ball, run efficiently and let its defense make Maiava sustain drives.
What decides it: Ohio State’s quarterback transition. Competent, low-risk play should be enough; multiple turnovers would hand USC the opening it needs.
Week 9 offers a full-day ranked slate built around contrast: two defensive grinders, a balanced Big 12 elimination game, Northwestern’s résumé challenging Oregon’s projection and a rivalry moving to a new setting. The nightcap carries the largest playoff question because Ohio State must prove its national-title profile survives the loss of its starting quarterback.
