Football player in morgue labeled “DECEASED VIA UPSET,” with “MORGUE” sign and repeated text, “Looks like the underdogs really delivered the final blow...”

Gridiron Autopsy: This Week In Losing Football

Time to examine this week’s autopsy report in football.

Last week gave us nine bodies. Apparently the sport decided that was rookie work.

Eight AP-ranked college teams lost this week, including a No. 4 team that got beaten by 24, two double-digit favorites that lost outright, and several ranked teams whose reputations had gotten noticeably farther ahead of the betting market.

The NFL was more selective, but it delivered quality over quantity: the defending Super Bowl champions lost as more than a touchdown favorite, and Philadelphia walked into Chicago on Monday night laying 4.5 points before getting beaten by 20.

Roll out the stainless-steel table.

College Football

No. 4 Ole Miss: No. 21 Florida 52, Ole Miss 28

AP ranking: No. 4 Ole Miss
Opponent: No. 21 Florida
Result: Florida 52, Ole Miss 28
Closing spread: Florida -3.5; Ole Miss +4.5 was also available late, depending on book
Opponent status: Ranked No. 21

This is the first important distinction of the week: the ranking said upset, but the betting market did not.

Ole Miss was No. 4 in the AP poll, yet Florida was favored in Gainesville, closing around -3.5 at CBS Sports and other books. The market smelled smoke. Florida supplied the cremation.

The Gators piled up 498 yards, rushed for 302 and held the ball for nearly 37 minutes. Jadan Baugh ran 29 times for 142 yards and three touchdowns, while Duke Clark added 126 yards at 10.5 per carry. Ole Miss actually averaged a slightly better 7.0 yards per play to Florida’s 6.6, but the Rebels only ran 61 plays and turned the ball over twice. Florida had zero giveaways.

Ole Miss briefly made it interesting. Trinidad Chambliss scored early in the third quarter to cut the deficit to 17-14, then later pulled the Rebels within 24-21.

Florida answered every time.

Clark ripped off a 45-yard touchdown, the Gators scored on three straight fourth-quarter possessions, and Florida turned a competitive game into a demolition. The Gators scored 21 points in the fourth quarter while Baugh’s third touchdown supplied the final incision.

Chambliss still threw for 298 yards and ran for two scores, but an interception and lost fumble helped ensure Ole Miss never got enough possessions to keep pace.

Cause of death: Ground-game exsanguination.

Ole Miss produced explosive plays.

Florida produced an entire assembly line of them.

No. 12 USC: No. 20 Oregon 41, USC 27

AP ranking: No. 12 USC
Opponent: No. 20 Oregon
Result: Oregon 41, USC 27
Closing spread: Oregon -3.5
Opponent status: Ranked No. 20

Another ranked “upset” that the sportsbooks did not consider much of an upset.

USC entered ranked eight spots ahead of Oregon, but the Ducks closed as 3.5-point road favorites at the Coliseum.

The market was right.

Oregon outgained USC 504-446 and averaged 7.4 yards per play to 5.9. More importantly, the Ducks did not turn the ball over. USC did.

Oregon’s day became even more impressive when starting quarterback Dante Moore left after completing eight of 10 passes. Dylan Raiola stepped in and looked entirely comfortable, going 19-of-25 for 289 yards and two touchdowns.

USC kept hanging around. Jayden Maiava tied the game at 27 with a touchdown pass to Travis Hines early in the fourth quarter.

Then Oregon simply took the game away.

Raiola answered with a 29-yard touchdown pass, and Jordon Davison added a late scoring run to put it out of reach. USC’s last meaningful possession ended with Maiava throwing an interception in the Oregon end zone.

The Ducks finished with multiple explosive receiving performances, including Jamari Johnson’s 119 yards and Dierre Hill Jr.’s 105 receiving yards in addition to his two rushing touchdowns.

USC was not embarrassed statistically.

It was simply beaten by the team the betting market already thought was better.

Cause of death: Depth-chart failure to matter.

Oregon lost its starting quarterback and kept functioning.

USC ran out of answers anyway.

No. 13 Penn State: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20

AP ranking: No. 13 Penn State
Opponent: Wisconsin
Result: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20
Closing spread: Penn State -9.5
Opponent status: Unranked

Now we have a proper corpse.

Penn State opened around -11.5 and closed at -9.5, meaning the market moved toward Wisconsin but still expected the Nittany Lions to win comfortably.

Penn State led 20-10 entering the fourth quarter.

Then the offense vanished and Wisconsin landed two fatal blows.

The first came with 3:37 remaining when Colton Joseph found Eugene Hilton Jr. for an 11-yard touchdown, cutting the lead to 20-17.

The second came barely two minutes later.

Joseph hit Jacob Harris for a 72-yard touchdown, giving Wisconsin its first lead of the second half and turning Beaver Stadium into a library.

Penn State had one final possession but could not finish it. Rocco Becht was sacked inside Wisconsin territory, and three consecutive incompletions ended the game.

The larger box score is even uglier for Penn State. Wisconsin outgained the Nittany Lions 355-233 and averaged 5.4 yards per play to Penn State’s 3.6.

Wisconsin even tried to help.

Joseph threw three interceptions. Penn State scored directly off one with a pick-six and still could not close the game.

Becht finished just 12-of-29 for 114 yards with an interception, and Penn State produced only 233 total yards despite being gifted three takeaways.

That is not wasting an opportunity.

That is wasting several.

Cause of death: Offensive organ failure.

Wisconsin committed three turnovers.

Penn State somehow lost anyway.

No. 14 Tennessee: No. 1 Texas 20, Tennessee 17

AP ranking: No. 14 Tennessee
Opponent: No. 1 Texas
Result: Texas 20, Tennessee 17
Closing spread: Texas -5.5
Opponent status: Ranked No. 1

Tennessee technically belongs on the table, but there is no shame sticker attached.

The Volunteers were 5.5-point home underdogs against No. 1 Texas and nearly pulled off the upset.

Tennessee’s problem was simple: moving the football became an archaeological project.

Texas held the Volunteers to 221 total yards and 2.9 yards per play despite Tennessee running 76 snaps. The Longhorns recorded multiple sacks, with Colin Simmons creating havoc throughout the afternoon, and Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon finished with only 145 passing yards.

Yet Tennessee stayed alive because Texas repeatedly stepped on rakes.

The Longhorns committed 11 penalties for 115 yards, turned the ball over twice and watched Tennessee return a punt for a touchdown.

Trailing 20-10 late, Brandon hit Mike Matthews for a 30-yard touchdown with 1:27 remaining. Tennessee then recovered the ensuing onside kick.

Suddenly Neyland Stadium had oxygen again.

But the final drive sputtered under pressure. A sack, holding penalty and incomplete passes ate the remaining clock, leaving the Volunteers three points short.

Tennessee won the turnover battle 2-0 and received a special-teams touchdown.

Normally that is enough to upset a favorite.

Not when the offense averages fewer than three yards per snap.

Cause of death: Offensive suffocation.

Texas gave Tennessee extra lives.

The Volunteers could not turn them into yards.

No. 16 Louisville: Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27

AP ranking: No. 16 Louisville
Opponent: Wake Forest
Result: Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27
Closing spread: Louisville about -11; earlier lines reached -13.5
Opponent status: Unranked

Louisville is this week’s other premium autopsy.

The Cardinals opened around -13.5 and were still laying roughly 11 points near kickoff. Wake Forest walked into Louisville and won outright.

This was not turnover roulette. Each team committed one.

It was efficiency.

Wake Forest gained 402 yards on 61 plays, averaging 6.6 yards per snap. Louisville gained 399 yards but needed 74 plays, producing only 5.4 per snap.

The primary murder weapon wore No. 5 for Wake Forest.

Carlos Hernandez caught nine passes for 194 yards, including a 77-yard touchdown that flipped the second quarter. Gio Lopez needed only 19 pass attempts to produce 225 yards.

Louisville had its chances.

The Cardinals tied the game at 27 late in the third quarter and drove into Wake territory in the final minute after the Demon Deacons kicked the go-ahead field goal.

Then came the cruelest ending of the week.

Louisville lined up for a 57-yard field goal with 22 seconds left.

Wake Forest blocked it.

Ballgame.

The Cardinals also committed nine penalties for 90 yards, including a holding call on the final drive that helped push the potential tying kick into low-orbit territory.

Cause of death: Blocked-kick blunt trauma.

Louisville was favored by double digits.

It ended the afternoon watching its last hope bounce backward.

No. 18 Michigan: No. 17 Iowa 20, Michigan 19

AP ranking: No. 18 Michigan
Opponent: No. 17 Iowa
Result: Iowa 20, Michigan 19
Closing spread: Michigan -4.5
Opponent status: Ranked No. 17

This is where rankings and betting markets crossed wires.

Iowa entered ranked one spot ahead of Michigan.

Michigan was still a 4.5-point favorite at home.

And for 59 minutes, 58 seconds, it looked like the market might survive.

Michigan led 19-14 with 28 seconds remaining. Iowa had no timeouts and was scrambling.

Then Michigan committed a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty.

That changed everything.

Hank Brown found Addison Ostrenga for 29 yards, then hit Reece Vander Zee for a 16-yard touchdown with two seconds remaining.

Game over.

Michigan will hate the box score. The Wolverines outgained Iowa 429-285, averaged 6.3 yards per play to Iowa’s 4.8 and held the ball for nearly nine more minutes.

Bryce Underwood threw for 276 yards and two touchdowns.

None of it mattered.

Michigan committed eight penalties for 75 yards, threw the game’s only interception and surrendered the decisive touchdown after a defensive penalty extended Iowa’s final drive.

Iowa also received a first-quarter kickoff-return touchdown, giving the Hawkeyes points without asking the offense to move the football.

That matters when you only gain 285 yards.

Cause of death: Self-inflicted wound, two seconds before expiration.

Michigan won the yardage battle.

Iowa won the only number anyone remembers.

No. 19 Missouri: No. 24 Mississippi State 31, Missouri 24

AP ranking: No. 19 Missouri
Opponent: No. 24 Mississippi State
Result: Mississippi State 31, Missouri 24
Closing spread: Mississippi State -3.5
Opponent status: Ranked No. 24

Here is another ranking upset that was not a betting upset.

Missouri entered ranked No. 19, five spots ahead of Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs closed as 3.5-point home favorites.

Missouri actually did plenty right.

The Tigers committed zero turnovers, Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns, and Missouri rallied from 14-0 down to lead 24-17 entering the fourth quarter.

Then Mississippi State found another gear.

Fluff Bothwell tied the game with a four-yard touchdown. Three minutes later, Kamario Taylor hit Sanfrisco Magee for a 24-yard touchdown, completing a 14-point fourth quarter and flipping the game.

Taylor was excellent: 360 passing yards and three touchdowns. Mississippi State rolled up 499 total yards, nearly 100 more than Missouri, and averaged 6.4 yards per snap.

Bothwell added 122 rushing yards, while Magee repeatedly punished Missouri downfield.

The Bulldogs did commit the game’s only turnover, an interception, but compensated by creating far more explosive offense.

Missouri’s final possession reached Mississippi State territory before an offensive holding penalty backed the Tigers up and the clock eventually expired.

Cause of death: Fourth-quarter structural collapse.

Missouri dug out of an early grave.

Mississippi State politely shoved it back in.

No. 23 Texas A&M: No. 10 LSU 35, Texas A&M 6

AP ranking: No. 23 Texas A&M
Opponent: No. 10 LSU
Result: LSU 35, Texas A&M 6
Closing spread: LSU about -8
Opponent status: Ranked No. 10

Texas A&M was an 8-point road underdog, so the loss itself was expected.

The manner of death was not.

LSU outgained the Aggies 506-197.

That is a 309-yard differential.

The Tigers averaged 7.7 yards per play.

Texas A&M averaged 3.3.

Marcel Reed completed only 10 of 26 passes for 106 yards and an interception. The Aggies never reached the end zone. Their entire offensive output consisted of two field goals.

Sam Leavitt torched A&M for 312 passing yards on 17 completions, including touchdown passes of 16 and 57 yards to Jackson Harris. Harris finished with 163 receiving yards while Winston Watkins Jr. added 107.

The game was technically 14-3 at halftime.

Then LSU performed the autopsy while the patient was still moving.

The Tigers scored 21 points in the third quarter. Texas A&M answered with a single field goal and spent the final period waiting for the clock to achieve mercy.

A&M turned the ball over twice, LSU once, but the turnover margin barely matters here.

One team could move the football.

The other could not.

Cause of death: Massive yardage differential.

When the forensic report reads 506-197, you can stop looking for fingerprints.

NFL

The NFL admission rule remains unchanged: an underdog of 3.5 points or more must win outright.

Only two teams made the slab this week.

Washington Commanders (+8.5): Commanders 33, Seahawks 31

Closing spread: Seattle -8.5
Result: Washington 33, Seattle 31

Here is the NFL upset of the week.

Seattle entered Washington as the defending Super Bowl champion, riding a 12-game winning streak and favored by 8.5 points against an 0-2 Commanders team missing starting quarterback Jayden Daniels.

Marcus Mariota apparently missed the memo.

Seattle destroyed Washington statistically.

The Seahawks gained 437 yards to Washington’s 258 and averaged 6.8 yards per play to 4.0.

Sam Darnold threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns.

And Seattle lost.

Why?

Turnovers: Seattle three, Washington zero.

The biggest came with 4:09 remaining. Darnold threw an interception near midfield and Kain Medrano returned it 50 yards for a touchdown, extending Washington’s lead to 33-24.

Seattle answered with a late score but never got the ball back.

Mariota was hardly spectacular statistically, throwing for 183 yards, but he tossed three touchdown passes without an interception and made the plays Washington needed.

The Commanders also stole points from special teams with a 57-yard field goal before halftime.

Washington scored heavily off Seattle giveaways and protected the football perfectly.

That is how you beat a team that nearly doubles your offensive production.

Cause of death: Turnover hemorrhage.

Seattle gained 179 more yards.

Washington kept possession of its possessions.

Chicago Bears (+4.5): Bears 27, Eagles 7

Closing spread: Philadelphia -4.5
Result: Chicago 27, Philadelphia 7

Philadelphia entered Monday night undefeated and favored by 4.5 points against a Bears team missing Caleb Williams.

Then Case Keenum walked into the room carrying a folding chair.

Chicago did not merely upset Philadelphia.

The Bears beat the Eagles 27-7.

Keenum completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Chicago controlled possession for nearly 37 minutes and outgained Philadelphia 375-248.

The decisive number again lived in the turnover column.

Philadelphia: three. Chicago: zero.

Jalen Hurts threw an interception, the Eagles lost a fumble, and backup Andy Dalton added another pick.

Philadelphia also committed 10 penalties.

Chicago led 10-7 at halftime, then broke the game open after intermission. Cairo Santos added a field goal, Keenum hit Kalif Raymond for a 41-yard touchdown, and Keenum himself scored from one yard to finish the 20-point victory.

Saquon Barkley actually averaged 5.5 yards per carry, but Philadelphia only gave him 15 attempts because the Eagles spent so much of the night playing from behind and turning the ball over.

One week after Chicago scored only three points against Minnesota, the Bears produced 27 against the previously unbeaten Eagles.

Football remains deeply unserious.

Cause of death: Triple-turnover poisoning.

Philadelphia arrived undefeated.

It left Chicago having been outscored by Case Keenum by 20.

Final Examination

This week’s report contains 10 bodies.

Eight ranked college teams.

Two NFL favorites.

But the rankings deserve their own warning label this week.

Ole Miss, USC, Tennessee, Missouri and Texas A&M were all higher-ranked losers who entered as betting underdogs. The poll called those upsets. The market was significantly less surprised.

Penn State and Louisville are different.

Penn State lost outright laying 9.5.

Louisville lost outright laying roughly 11.

Those are the premium cuts in this week’s morgue.

And then there is Washington, which got outgained 437-258, entered without its starting quarterback, closed at +8.5 and still beat the defending Super Bowl champions.

Sometimes the autopsy reveals a sophisticated chain of football causes.

Sometimes it just says:

Three turnovers.

See you next week.

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