Time to examine this week’s autopsy report in football.
After last week required extra tables in the morgue, Week 5 showed admirable restraint.
Only three AP-ranked college teams lost. Better yet, the rankings and betting markets mostly agreed on who was supposed to survive. Florida is the glaring exception: the No. 8 Gators were favored by nearly a touchdown and instead got beaten by four.
The NFL contributed only two qualifying bodies, but one came from Buffalo, where an undefeated team laying nearly a touchdown lost at home to a division rival. Carolina supplied the other by treating Sunday Night Football as a 445-yard coming-out party.
A light week, perhaps. Still plenty to cut open.
College Football
No. 8 Florida: No. 25 Missouri 45, Florida 17
AP ranking: No. 8 Florida
Opponent: No. 25 Missouri
Result: Missouri 45, Florida 17
Closing spread: Florida -5.5
Opponent status: Ranked No. 25
This is the unquestioned centerpiece of the college autopsy.
Florida entered Columbia ranked eighth, undefeated and a 5.5-point favorite. Missouri was No. 25 and getting +180 or thereabouts on the moneyline.
Then the Tigers beat Florida by 28 points.
There was no turnover gimmick. Neither team gave the ball away. Missouri simply dismantled Florida. The Tigers piled up 560 yards to Florida’s 325 and averaged a ridiculous 8.5 yards per play, compared with 5.1 for the Gators. The more startling split came on the ground: Missouri rushed for 220 yards while holding Florida to 42.
Jamal Roberts supplied most of the blood loss. He ran for 211 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries, including an 80-yard touchdown that turned the fourth quarter into a public viewing. Austin Simmons added 340 passing yards and two touchdowns. Missouri finished with five offensive touchdowns, three field goals and enough explosive plays to make Florida’s defensive film session a hostile workplace environment.
Florida’s Jadan Baugh entered as one of the nation’s most productive backs. Missouri held him to 13 yards on 12 carries. The Gators were still within 20-10 at halftime. They never scored again until 47 seconds remained.
Missouri scored 35 unanswered points during the meaningful portion of the game and converted seven of 13 third downs while Florida punted eight times.
Cause of death: Total-system failure.
No turnovers. No blocked punts. No bizarre officiating. The No. 8 team in the country simply got beaten everywhere.
No. 14 Iowa: No. 5 Ohio State 31, Iowa 14
AP ranking: No. 14 Iowa
Opponent: No. 5 Ohio State
Result: Ohio State 31, Iowa 14
Closing-area spread: Ohio State -14.5
Opponent status: Ranked No. 5
Iowa technically belongs in the report, although this is one of those cases where the AP ranking sounds more optimistic than the betting market ever was. The No. 14 Hawkeyes were roughly two-touchdown home underdogs against No. 5 Ohio State. The Buckeyes proceeded to justify every bit of it. Ohio State outgained Iowa 484-238, held the ball for more than 38 minutes and nearly doubled Iowa’s offensive output.
The Hawkeyes managed just 39 rushing yards on 21 attempts. Hank Brown completed only 12 of 27 passes for 132 yards and an interception before Jeremy Hecklinski added some late production.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, meanwhile, finished 20-of-27 for 324 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Jeremiah Smith was the cheat code: 11 catches, 206 yards and two scores, including a 57-yard touchdown in the third quarter that pushed the lead to 24-6.
Iowa also lost the turnover battle 2-0 and averaged only 4.5 yards per play to Ohio State’s 6.5. The Hawkeyes’ offense produced no passing touchdowns, only three rushing first downs and barely possessed the ball for 22 minutes.
This was not an upset. It was confirmation.
Cause of death: Talent differential with complications from offensive anemia.
Iowa entered ranked 14th. Vegas looked at the same team and said, “That is adorable.”
No. 16 Mississippi State: No. 7 Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23
AP ranking: No. 16 Mississippi State
Opponent: No. 7 Alabama
Result: Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23
Closing spread: Alabama -5.5
Opponent status: Ranked No. 7
Mississippi State entered undefeated, ranked 16th and playing at home. The Bulldogs were still 5.5-point underdogs, which turned out to be hilariously insufficient respect for Alabama.
The Crimson Tide scored 14 points in every quarter. There is something aesthetically cruel about that.
Alabama finished with 483 yards to Mississippi State’s 302 and averaged 7.9 yards per play. The Tide ran for 179 yards while State managed only 18 net rushing yards. Eighteen.
Kamario Taylor did throw for 258 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions. Mississippi State committed four turnovers, compared with Alabama’s two. One of those interceptions became points immediately when Alabama’s Dijon Lee returned a first-quarter pick for a touchdown. From there, State spent the afternoon chasing a game that kept moving farther away.
Keelon Russell was brutally efficient, completing 16 of 22 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Alabama also converted six of nine third downs and generated five sacks.
Mississippi State was still hanging around at 28-17 at halftime. Alabama scored 28 more after the break. The Bulldogs scored six. By the fourth quarter, the coroner could have started paperwork early.
Cause of death: Four-turnover trauma accompanied by complete loss of rushing function.
Mississippi State arrived undefeated. Alabama sent it home carrying 56 points and several new questions.
NFL
The NFL rule remains simple: an underdog of at least 3.5 points must win outright.
Jacksonville beat Cincinnati, but the Jaguars closed around +2.5, so they do not qualify. The Rams also won in Philadelphia, but Los Angeles was actually a 3.5-point favorite by kickoff.
That leaves two.
New England Patriots (+6.5): Patriots 29, Bills 26
Closing-area spread: Buffalo -6.5
Result: New England 29, Buffalo 26
Buffalo entered 3-0, playing at home and laying 6.5 points against a New England team that had won once. Division games remain deeply uninterested in your spreadsheets. New England won 29-26.
The Patriots did not steal it through some bizarre turnover avalanche. Turnovers finished 2-2. They actually outgained Buffalo 405-340, ran 19 more offensive plays and controlled possession for almost 34 minutes.
Drake Maye provided the biggest reason. Maye threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns and added 54 yards rushing. Buffalo took a 26-21 lead with 4:33 remaining when Josh Allen hit Keon Coleman for a 34-yard touchdown.
New England responded instead of folding. Facing third-and-five late in the drive, Maye connected with Efton Chism III for a 23-yard touchdown with 1:55 remaining. The Patriots then converted the two-point try to go ahead 29-26. Buffalo never got the expected heroic final possession. New England’s offense picked up the first down it needed and bled away the clock.
The Patriots protected Maye well enough to allow only one sack and repeatedly kept Buffalo’s offense standing on the sideline. New England ran 73 plays to Buffalo’s 54. Allen still threw for 253 yards. James Cook averaged more than six yards per carry. Buffalo simply did not have enough snaps.
Cause of death: Possession deprivation with late-game Maye exposure.
Buffalo entered undefeated. New England left town having performed the most Patriots thing imaginable: ruining Buffalo’s afternoon.
Carolina Panthers (+3.5): Panthers 32, Lions 26
Closing spread: Detroit -3.5
Result: Carolina 32, Detroit 26
Carolina began the week around +3 and drifted to +3.5 by kickoff, sliding just across our admission threshold. Then the Panthers played their best offensive game of the season. Detroit actually gained slightly more yardage, 452-445, and averaged 6.6 yards per play to Carolina’s 6.2. This was not a statistical fluke.
It was an old-fashioned shootout in which Carolina consistently finished drives better. Bryce Young completed 29 of 41 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns, both to Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan erupted for 14 catches and 192 yards, while Chuba Hubbard supplied balance with 122 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Detroit had no comparable rushing threat. Jahmyr Gibbs finished with only 46 yards on 15 carries, leaving Jared Goff to throw 52 times. Goff produced 412 yards but only one passing touchdown.
The Panthers scored touchdowns on six consecutive scoring drives stretching across the middle of the game, while Detroit repeatedly settled for Jake Bates field goals. Carolina led 29-19 entering the fourth quarter and answered Detroit’s late push with a field goal of its own.
Neither team committed a turnover. Carolina simply generated a healthier offensive ecosystem: Young attacking vertically, Hubbard punishing light boxes and McMillan turning Detroit’s secondary into personal property.
Cause of death: Red-zone inefficiency complicated by McMillan poisoning.
Detroit moved the football. Carolina turned movement into touchdowns.
Final Examination
Only five bodies this week.
Three ranked college teams. Two NFL favorites. And there is a useful distinction between them.
Iowa and Mississippi State lost to higher-ranked opponents while entering as meaningful underdogs. Those are ranked losses, but hardly shocking deaths.
Florida is different. The No. 8 Gators were favored by 5.5 against No. 25 Missouri and lost by 28 while being outgained 560-325. That is not merely losing football. That is precisely why we own the bone saw.
In the NFL, New England supplied the bigger betting upset at +6.5, but Carolina’s offensive explosion might be the more interesting autopsy. The Panthers did not rely on turnovers or weird special teams. They simply produced 445 yards and made Detroit’s defense survive Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard and Tetairoa McMillan simultaneously.
Five bodies. Two genuine upsets. And one top-10 team that entered Missouri favored by nearly a touchdown and departed looking like investigators should probably secure the scene.
Morgue closed until next week.
