Time to examine this week’s autopsy report in football.
The No. 1 team in the country lost despite outgaining its opponent by 144 yards. Alabama lost at home as a betting favorite. LSU surrendered a two-point conversion in overtime, and Oregon apparently decided that seven turnovers constituted a viable offensive strategy.
Florida, meanwhile, has become a repeat customer.
Six AP-ranked college teams went down this week. Five were betting favorites, and four lost to unranked opponents. The NFL contributed three qualifying outright underdog victories, including an 8.5-point underdog winning with an undrafted rookie quarterback and a Monday night game in which a blocked field goal rescued a team that had already turned the ball over twice.
Nine bodies. Several unusual causes of death.
The examination begins.
No. 1 Texas: Oklahoma 27, Texas 24
AP ranking: No. 1 Texas
Opponent: Oklahoma, unranked
Final score: Oklahoma 27, Texas 24
Closing spread: Texas -7.5
Opening spread: Texas -6.5
Betting result: Oklahoma wins outright as a 7.5-point underdog.
The first rule of football autopsies is to examine the evidence before assigning a cause of death. The evidence from the Red River Rivalry suggests Texas should have won.
The Longhorns outgained Oklahoma 382-238, averaged 6.1 yards per play to 4.2, and led 17-7 at halftime. Arch Manning threw for 260 yards and three touchdowns. Cam Coleman caught five passes for 110 yards. And Texas lost.
The explanation begins with two fourth-quarter interceptions and ends with a 47-yard field goal. Oklahoma generated two touchdowns without requiring its offense to produce a traditional scoring drive. The Sooners blocked a Texas punt in the second quarter, with David Fields recovering for a touchdown. Later, Peyton Bowen intercepted Manning and returned it 42 yards for a fourth-quarter touchdown, giving Oklahoma a 24-17 lead.
Texas answered when Manning found Jack Bishop for a 15-yard touchdown, tying the game with 6:37 remaining. The Longhorns then had another opportunity to win, but Manning threw his second interception with 24 seconds left.
Courtland Guillory made the pick. John Mateer completed consecutive passes to Isaiah Sategna, and Tate Sandell drilled the winner from 47 yards.
Oklahoma committed no turnovers. Texas committed two. The Sooners also avoided allowing Texas to establish a consistent running game, limiting the Longhorns to 122 rushing yards.
Cause of death: Turnover poisoning with special-teams complications. Texas produced 144 more yards and nearly two additional yards per snap. Oklahoma simply scored 14 points on plays that did not require its offense to drive downfield.
No. 6 Alabama: No. 2 Georgia 20, Alabama 17
AP ranking: No. 6 Alabama
Opponent: No. 2 Georgia
Final score: Georgia 20, Alabama 17
Closing spread: Alabama -2.5
Opening spread: Georgia -2.5
Betting result: Georgia wins outright as a 2.5-point underdog.
Here is an interesting betting-market reversal. Georgia entered the week favored by 2.5 points. By kickoff, Alabama had become the 2.5-point favorite despite facing the No. 2 team in the country.
The market shifted five points toward the Crimson Tide. The football shifted in the opposite direction.
Georgia outgained Alabama 455-346 and averaged 7.5 yards per play compared with Alabama’s 5.8. The Bulldogs also controlled possession for more than 33 minutes and produced 206 rushing yards.
Gunner Stockton completed 18 of 22 passes for 249 yards and a touchdown, while Dwight Phillips Jr. ran for 120 yards on 17 carries. Alabama’s Keelon Russell managed just 185 passing yards on 30 attempts.
The Tide led 14-10 at halftime after scoring two second-quarter touchdowns, but Georgia answered with Stockton’s 14-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. Alabama tied the game at 17 with a field goal. Georgia eventually reclaimed the lead on Peyton Woodring’s 23-yard kick with 5:27 remaining.
The turnovers were even at one apiece, so there is no giveaway explanation here. Georgia simply moved the football more effectively, particularly on the ground. The final insult came when Alabama committed a 15-yard personal foul during Georgia’s clock-killing possession, helping the Bulldogs exhaust the remaining time.
Cause of death: Sustained offensive inefficiency. Alabama was favored at home, led at halftime and still managed only three second-half points. Georgia was the more efficient offense and eventually made that advantage decisive.
No. 10 LSU: Kentucky 35, LSU 34 (OT)
AP ranking: No. 10 LSU
Opponent: Kentucky, unranked
Final score: Kentucky 35, LSU 34 (OT)
Closing spread: LSU -9.5 at Action Network; -8.5 available elsewhere
Opening spread: LSU -10.5
Betting result: Kentucky wins outright as a substantial underdog.
Kentucky has apparently decided that winning football games by one point in overtime is an acceptable long-term business model. For the second consecutive week, the Wildcats won in overtime by a single point. This time, they knocked off No. 10 LSU.
The Tigers entered Lexington favored by roughly nine points and produced 410 yards of offense. Kentucky generated 401, and the teams were nearly identical in yards per play: 5.8 for LSU and 5.9 for Kentucky.
The differences came in turnovers and special teams. LSU committed two turnovers. Kentucky committed none.
Brock Coffman also returned a punt for a touchdown in the second quarter, giving Kentucky seven points without requiring an offensive possession.
CJ Baxter provided the explosive ground attack, rushing for 123 yards and two touchdowns, including a 77-yard run. Kenny Minchey threw for 246 yards without an interception. LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns, but his interception and lost fumble proved costly.
The Tigers appeared to have escaped when Leavitt scored on a 15-yard touchdown run in overtime, giving LSU a 34-27 lead.
Kentucky answered with Baxter’s one-yard touchdown. Then coach Will Stein went for two. Minchey ran it in, delivering a 35-34 victory and another remarkable finish.
Cause of death: Two turnovers, a special-teams touchdown and an unsuccessful attempt to survive overtime. LSU produced enough offense to win but gave Kentucky additional scoring opportunities and failed to make the final defensive stop.
No. 13 Oregon: No. 21 UCLA 17, Oregon 15
AP ranking: No. 13 Oregon
Opponent: No. 21 UCLA
Final score: UCLA 17, Oregon 15
Closing spread: Oregon -10
Earlier spread: Oregon -12.5
Betting result: UCLA wins outright as a 10-point underdog.
Seven. That is the number.
Seven turnovers.
Oregon lost five fumbles and threw two interceptions in a 17-15 home loss to UCLA.
The Ducks were favored by 10 points at kickoff. They were also playing at Autzen Stadium against a UCLA team ranked eight spots below them. Instead, Oregon staged an extended demonstration of why possession is an important component of football. The Ducks generated only 272 yards and 4.4 yards per play. UCLA produced 345 yards and averaged 4.9 per snap.
The Bruins were hardly perfect themselves, committing three turnovers. But Oregon’s minus-four turnover margin meant UCLA could repeatedly survive its own mistakes. Dylan Raiola struggled badly, completing six of 19 passes for 43 yards and two interceptions. Brock Thomas eventually replaced him and provided a late spark, finishing with 156 passing yards and a touchdown.
Wayne Knight led UCLA with 103 rushing yards and a touchdown, including a 35-yard scoring run. The Bruins controlled possession for more than 39 minutes, leaving Oregon with fewer than 21.
Thomas connected with Evan Stewart for a 44-yard touchdown with 2:26 remaining, pulling Oregon within two points. The Ducks failed on the conversion attempt, leaving the score 17-15.
Their final desperation possession ended with another fumble.
Cause of death: Acute football rejection syndrome. Oregon turned the ball over seven times, generated only 272 yards and spent most of the afternoon watching UCLA possess the football.
The Ducks opened the season with national championship aspirations. They now have three losses and have fallen completely out of the AP poll.
No. 16 Florida: South Carolina 38, Florida 19
AP ranking: No. 16 Florida
Opponent: South Carolina, unranked
Final score: South Carolina 38, Florida 19
Closing spread: Florida -10.5
Opening spread: Florida -14.5
Betting result: South Carolina wins outright as a 10.5-point underdog.
Welcome back, Florida. The Gators were the centerpiece of last week’s autopsy after losing 45-17 to Missouri as a 5.5-point favorite. Apparently, one examination was insufficient.
Florida entered Saturday’s home game against South Carolina favored by 10.5 points, despite the market moving four points toward the Gamecocks during the week. South Carolina won by 19.
The box score initially suggests a relatively competitive game. South Carolina gained 393 yards. Florida gained 387. The Gamecocks averaged 5.5 yards per play, compared with Florida’s 5.2.
Then we reach the turnover column.
South Carolina: zero. Florida: three.
LaNorris Sellers threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns, adding another score on the ground. Nyck Harbor caught four passes for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Florida actually opened the scoring on a 59-yard touchdown pass from Aaron Philo to Bailey Stockton. The Gators also led 10-7 during the second quarter. Then South Carolina took control.
The Gamecocks scored 24 of the next 27 points, building a 31-13 advantage entering the fourth quarter. Sellers added another touchdown pass in the final period, while Florida’s last touchdown came with just over a minute remaining.
Florida quarterbacks Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. combined for two interceptions, and the Gators also lost a fumble.
Cause of death: Recurring turnover trauma. Florida has now lost consecutive games by 28 and 19 points while entering both as favorites.
The Gators have surrendered 83 points in two weeks.
At this point, the medical examiner might consider requesting a permanent parking space.
No. 25 Pittsburgh: North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17
AP ranking: No. 25 Pittsburgh
Opponent: North Carolina, unranked
Final score: North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17
Closing spread: Pittsburgh -3.5
Opening spread: Pittsburgh -4.5
Betting result: North Carolina wins outright as a 3.5-point underdog.
Bill Belichick finally has his first victory over an AP-ranked opponent as North Carolina’s head coach. Pittsburgh probably wishes the achievement had happened somewhere else. The Panthers entered undefeated and ranked No. 25, favored by 3.5 points at home. They also produced the sort of statistical advantage that normally suggests victory.
Pittsburgh outgained North Carolina 369-269 and controlled possession for more than 36 minutes. The Panthers ran 85 offensive plays. North Carolina ran 51. Yet the Tar Heels were significantly more efficient, averaging 5.3 yards per play to Pittsburgh’s 4.3.
Pittsburgh quarterback Holden Geriner, starting in place of injured Mason Heintschel, completed 27 of 44 passes for 219 yards but threw two interceptions and no touchdowns. North Carolina quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. also threw two interceptions, leaving the turnover margin even.
The decisive difference came through explosive passing. After Pittsburgh took a 17-14 lead early in the fourth quarter, Edwards connected with Shamar Easter for a 75-yard touchdown.
North Carolina led 21-17 and never surrendered the advantage. Pittsburgh’s final possession ended with four consecutive unsuccessful passing plays, including a completion for negative yardage on first down.
Edwards finished with 249 passing yards and two touchdowns despite North Carolina generating only 20 net rushing yards.
Cause of death: Inefficient possession and one catastrophic coverage failure. Pittsburgh controlled the football, ran 34 more plays and gained 100 additional yards. North Carolina produced the game’s defining explosive play. Sometimes the autopsy really does come down to one snap.
NFL
Three teams meet our NFL admission requirement this week: an underdog of at least 3.5 points winning outright.
The qualifying teams are Tampa Bay (+8.5), Baltimore (+3.5) and Buffalo (+3.5).
San Francisco also won outright at Seattle, but the 49ers closed around +2.5 to +3, depending on the sportsbook. Green Bay beat Chicago as a smaller underdog, while Jacksonville was actually favored against Philadelphia.
Neither meets the established threshold.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5): Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16
Closing spread: Dallas -8.5
Final score: Tampa Bay 24, Dallas 16
Betting result: Tampa Bay wins outright as an 8.5-point underdog.
Dallas entered Thursday night favored by 8.5 points against a winless Tampa Bay team starting an undrafted rookie quarterback. That sounds like a fairly comfortable assignment. Instead, the Cowboys became the first team to lose to Jalon Daniels as an NFL starter.
Daniels completed 19 of 25 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown without an interception, but the real story was Tampa Bay’s running game. Bucky Irving rushed for 165 yards on 21 carries, including a 72-yard run. The Buccaneers accumulated 241 rushing yards and controlled possession for more than 39 minutes.
Dallas ran the football only 13 times. The Cowboys actually averaged more yards per play, 6.7 to Tampa Bay’s 6.4, but the Buccaneers generated 419 total yards and kept Dallas’s offense off the field.
The turnover battle was decisive.
Dallas committed three. Tampa Bay committed zero. Dak Prescott threw two interceptions, including one inside Tampa Bay territory late in the fourth quarter. Dallas also lost a fumble.
Tampa Bay trailed 10-7 at halftime before scoring 17 unanswered third-quarter points. Emeka Egbuka scored on a 14-yard run, Irving added a one-yard touchdown and Chase McLaughlin kicked a field goal. Dallas managed one fourth-quarter touchdown but never recovered.
The Buccaneers even overcame 14 penalties for 92 yards.
Cause of death: Rushing-defense collapse accompanied by three turnovers. Dallas was favored by more than a touchdown, surrendered 241 rushing yards and possessed the ball for barely 20 minutes. That is a particularly effective way to lose a game that was supposed to be comfortable.
Baltimore Ravens (+3.5): Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT)
Closing spread: Atlanta -3.5
Earlier spread: Baltimore was favored by approximately 2.5 points before the market reversed.
Final score: Baltimore 30, Atlanta 23 (OT)
Betting result: Baltimore wins outright as a 3.5-point underdog.
The betting market spent the week changing its mind about this game. Baltimore initially held favorite status before the line flipped toward Atlanta. By kickoff, the Falcons were favored by 3.5 points. For most of Sunday night, that seemed reasonable. Atlanta led 23-15 with less than three minutes remaining.
Then Tyler Huntley performed emergency surgery. Starting in place of Lamar Jackson, Huntley completed 24 of 32 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns, adding 20 rushing yards and the winning overtime score.
Baltimore outgained Atlanta 391-367, although the Falcons held a slight yards-per-play advantage, 5.7 to 5.5. The Ravens’ running game supplied the foundation. Derrick Henry rushed for 102 yards, while Justice Hill added 73 yards on only four carries, including a 47-yard run.
The critical sequence began late in regulation. Huntley connected with Devontez Walker for a seven-yard touchdown with 44 seconds remaining. Henry converted the two-point attempt, tying the game at 23. Baltimore then took the opening overtime possession and marched downfield. Huntley scored from one yard, putting the Ravens ahead 30-23.
Atlanta’s response ended when backup quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw an interception to Kyle Hamilton. The Falcons had already lost Michael Penix Jr. to injury late in regulation.
Cause of death: Late defensive collapse and overtime quarterback complications. Atlanta led by eight with less than three minutes remaining, then allowed a touchdown, two-point conversion and overtime touchdown before throwing the game-ending interception.
Baltimore was the underdog. Huntley was the backup. Neither fact mattered when the game reached its final examination.
Buffalo Bills (+3.5): Bills 37, Rams 34 (OT)
Closing spread: Los Angeles Rams -3.5
Earlier spread: Rams -2.5 was available earlier in the week.
Final score: Buffalo 37, Los Angeles 34 (OT)
Betting result: Buffalo wins outright as a 3.5-point underdog.
Monday Night Football provided a fitting conclusion to the week’s examinations.
Buffalo entered Los Angeles as a 3.5-point underdog. The Bills left with a 37-34 overtime victory in a game that featured six lead changes and 35 combined fourth-quarter points.
The Rams actually won several important statistical categories. Los Angeles outgained Buffalo 454-436, controlled possession for nearly 38 minutes and converted seven of 14 third downs. Buffalo converted only two of seven.
Matthew Stafford threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Puka Nacua caught 17 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo, meanwhile, committed two turnovers while Los Angeles committed none.
Normally, that combination ends badly for the road team. Josh Allen supplied the exception. Allen threw for 210 yards and rushed for 121 more, while James Cook added 111 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
The Bills averaged 7.6 yards per play to the Rams’ 5.8, generating explosive offense despite running 21 fewer plays.
The game reached overtime tied at 34 after Kyren Williams scored with eight seconds remaining in regulation. Buffalo initially appeared to have thrown away its opportunity when Cook fumbled in overtime. Then Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis’ 48-yard field goal attempt. Allen responded with consecutive runs of 19 and 13 yards, positioning Tyler Bass for the winning 45-yard field goal.
Cause of death: Special-teams failure complicated by Josh Allen. Los Angeles committed no turnovers, threw for 383 yards and had an opportunity to win in overtime. A blocked field goal turned the game. Allen finished the examination.
Final Examination
Nine bodies. Six ranked college teams. Three NFL favorites.
The most expensive college casualty was Oregon, which lost outright as a 10-point favorite while committing seven turnovers. Florida was nearly as impressive in the wrong direction, losing by 19 as a 10.5-point favorite just one week after losing by 28 as a 5.5-point favorite.
Texas deserves its own category. The Longhorns lost despite a substantial offensive advantage, allowing Oklahoma to manufacture 14 points through defense and special teams.
In the NFL, Tampa Bay supplied the biggest betting upset at +8.5. Baltimore survived with a backup quarterback and a late comeback. Buffalo managed to win despite losing the turnover battle, thanks to an extraordinary rushing performance from Josh Allen and one enormous special-teams play.
The common theme? There really was not one.
Some teams died from turnovers. Others from offensive inefficiency. One from seven giveaways. Another from a blocked field goal. Alabama simply got beaten by a better-performing opponent despite being favored.
And Pittsburgh discovered that running 34 more plays than your opponent is not especially useful when one of theirs travels 75 yards.
Cause of Death of the Week: Oregon.
Seven turnovers. That is not merely a football autopsy. That is a request for the entire pathology department.
Morgue closed until next week.
