With the NFL regular season completed, and the Heisman out of the way tonight. it is time to take a quick look at the NFL postseason awards, how I would vote and how I expect it to go.
What I think it will be: 1) Aaron Rodgers. 2) Patrick Mahomes 3) Josh Allen.
How I would vote: 1) Patrick Mahomes. 2) Aaron Rodgers. 3) Derrick Henry.
This is Aaron Rodgers’ award by almost all accounts. He has the narrative of “the old man’s last hurrah” and the argument that the younger Patrick Mahomes has plenty of time to win others on his side. Mahomes is already to good they will look for reasons to not give him the award the way they did with Lebron and MJ in the NBA.
A quick check of Passing DYAR shows Mahomes the leader at 1,720, followed by Rodgers at 1,649, Tom Brady and 1,518 and then Josh Allen (currently second in the odds) at 1,460. Allen had the most rushing value of the group at 74, followed by Mahomes with 44, Rodgers with 24 and Brady at -22. Rodgers had a slight QBR edge over Mahomes at 84.4 to 82.9. The folks over at PFF say they have Rodgers as their MVP by grade. Mahomes’ DYAR probably gets helped by the Chiefs struggles to running the ball putting him in more positions to accumulate value as well. Rodgers winning is not any egregious thing. I would just slightly give Mahomes the nod.
Henry at third for me is simply an acknowledgement of his last two years, not a measure of actual value added.
Offensive Rookie Of The Year
This was a solid rookie class, with at least three guys who could have won it in a lot of year.
Prediction: Justin Herbert, QB, LAC.
My ballot: 1) Justin Jefferson, WR. 2) Justin Herbert, QB. 3) Jonathan Taylor, RB.
Herbert stepped in at the literal last second of game one, after a freak medical mishap to Tyrod Taylor in the pregame, and never gave the job up. He finished the year eight among all quarterbacks in DYAR and 14th in QBR.
Jefferson may have been the second best WR in the league behind Davante Adams, as a rookie. And he started the year slow before taking over the final three-quarters of the year. He finished second in WRs with 374 DYAR, just ahead of the guy he replaced, Stefon Diggs. He was second in the league in receiving yards with 1,347.
JK Dobbins was actually a better back than Taylor this year in efficiency measurements like success rate, but Taylor gets the nod based on the accumulating stats. 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground, plus another 299 yards and one score in the air, despite Naheim Hines excelling in that role on the same team.
Jacksonville running back James Robinson also cracked, 1,000 yards rushing in a solid rookie class, in a year we thought rookies might struggle due to no preseason.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Prediction: Chase Young.
My ballot: 1) Jeremy Chinn. 2) Chase Young. 3) Antoine Winfield.
Listen, I took Chinn simply because, well, SIU! He seriously had an incredible year, highlighted by scoring defensive touchdowns on back-to-back snaps. I suggest you let that one marinate for a bit. Listen, it’s hard to argue with what Young has done for the Football Team. 7.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles is solid. I just like Chinn with 67 solo tackles, 49 assists, a sack, an interception, two forced fumbles and two recoveries with those two scores.
And Winfield Is already playing just like a dad, which is a year-in, year-out top 10 safety.
Defensive Player of the Year
Prediction: TJ Watt.
My ballot: 1) TJ Watt. 2) Aaron Donald. 3) Xavien Howard.
Watt and Donald are like trying to decide if you like chocolate with your peanut butter, or peanut butter with your chocolate. There is no wrong answer. I went Watt simply because he was my preseason pick for the award. Myles Garrett will probably finish third in the voting, but I’m going Howard because DBs stick together.
Speaking of preseason predictions, here were our picks on Take The Points before the season started. Ignore those coaching picks. Please, please ignore those coaching picks.
From left: Weez, Bruce, Jamey, Lucas.