St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers

Line: Packers -6.5. Total 45.5. Opened GB -7, 47.
Pro Line: 5.5. Bettor Rating 3.4. 538: GB -9, 78%.
Bet%: GB 60%. Money%: GB 54.

DVOA Breakdown

Packers 79.7% chance to win.
Weighted DVOA: Packers #4 (31.4%). Rams #8 (14.1%).

Packers Offense vs. Rams Defense
#1 Pass DVOA vs. #4 Pass D DVOA
#5 Rush DVOA vs. #3 Rush D DVOA

Rams Offense vs. Packers Defense
#20 Pass DVOA vs. #15 Pass D DVOA
#4 Rush DVOA vs. #18 Rush D DVOA

Injuries: GB: David Bakhtiari on IR Jan. 2. 4x Pro-Bowl, 0 sacks this year. Jared Veldheer on Covid list. LAR: Goff thumb? Wolford? QB situation “a day at a time”. Kupp banged up. Donald rib injury. LG David Edward ankle.

Pros
Packers: Dinsick, Freedman, Schwartz, Bell.
Rams: Stuckey, Tulley, Kannon, Von Tobel, Hill.
Under: 1H Stuckey, Finocchiaro, Youmans, Fezz.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Line: Bills -2.5. Total 50 or 50.5. Opened BUF -3, 49.
Pro line: Ravens -.2. Bettor Rating 3.1. 538: Buffalo -4.5, 65%.
Bet% Bills 52%. Money% Ravens 61%.

DVOA Breakdown

Bills 72.1% chance to win.
Weighted DVOA: Bills #1 (34.5%). Ravens #8 (14.1).

Bills Offense vs. Ravens Defense
#3 Pass DVOA vs. #10 Pass D DVOA
#22 Rush DVOA vs. #12 Rush D DVOA

Ravens Offense vs. Bills Defense
#17 Pass DVOA vs. #12 Pass D DVOA
#3 Rush DVOA vs. #17 Rush D DVOA

Injuries: Bal: Marcus Peter (back) and Matthew Judon (illness) DNPs Wednesday. CB Tavon Young out. T Ronnie Stanley out. Buf: Cole Beasley limited. Zach Moss out.

Pros
Ravens: Mitch, Youmans, Dinsick, Freedman, Schwartz, Stuckey, Finocchiaro, Von Tobel, Hill.
Bills: Kannon.
Under: Raybon.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs

Line: Chiefs -10. Total 57 or 57.5. Opened KC -9.5, 57.
Pro line: Chiefs -8. Bettor Rating 7.1. 538: KC -9, 79%.
Bet%: CLE 54%. Money%: CLE 55%.

DVOA Breakdown

Chiefs 77.5% chance to win.
Weighted DVOA: Chiefs #6 (19.4%). Browns #18 (-0.7%).

Chiefs Offense vs. Browns Defense
#3 Pass DVOA vs. #25 Pass D DVOA
#13 Rush DVOA vs. #19 Rush D DVOA

Browns Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
#10 Pass DVOA vs. #16 Pass D DVOA
#7 Rush DVOA vs. ##31 Rush D DVOA

Injuries: KC: CEH returned from high-ankle sprain in Wk 16. LB Willie Gay high ankle out. Cle Jack Conklin missed Wednesday (hamstring). Get back Joel Bitonio, CB Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson from Covid.

Pros
Browns: Dinsick, Tucker, Freedman, Tulley, Moss, Hill, Raybon.
Chiefs: Schwartz team total O33.
Over: Phan O55.
Under: Tulley U56.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Line: Saints -3. Total 51.5. Opened Saints -3.5, 50.5.
Pro Line: Saints -2. Bettor Rating 3.4. 538: Saints -6, 71%.
Bet%: TB 57%. Money%: TB 63%.

DVOA Breakdown

Saints 64.3% chance to win.
Weighted DVOA: Saints #2 (34.3). Bucs #3 (33.6%).

Saints Offense vs. Bucs Defense
#12 Pass DVOA vs. #5 Pass D DVOA
#1 Rush DVOA vs. #1 Rush D DVOA

Bucs Offense vs. Saints Defense
#5 Pass DVOA vs. #3 Pass D DVOA
#10 Rush DVOA vs. #2 Rush D DVOA

Injuries: TB Ronald Jones hurt last week (sore quad). RG Alex Capp fractured ankle last week. Godwin/Evans limited but playing NO RB Latavius Murray missed practice Wednesday.

Pros
Bucs: Tucker, Youmans, Raybon.
Saints: Pauly, Kannon, Von Tobel, Fezz, Holt.
Under: Dinsick, Stuckey, Moss.
Over: Freedman, Finocchiaro, Stuckey.

My Picks

Packers -6.5. Under 45.5.
Bills -2.5. Under 50.5.
Chiefs -10. Over 57.
Saints -2. Under 51.5.