NFL Playoff Preview, By The Numbers–Conference Championship

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers

Line: Packers -3.5 or -3. Total 51.5. Opened GB -3.5, 51.
Pro Line: 2.6 Bettor Rating Bucs -0.7. 538: GB -3.5, 63%.
Bet%: GB 58%. Money%: GB 58%.

DVOA Breakdown

Packers 60.4% chance to win.
Weighted DVOA: Packers #3 (31.4%). Bucs #3 (33.6%).

Packers Offense (#1) vs. Bucs Defense (#6)
#1 Pass DVOA vs. #5 Pass D DVOA
#5 Rush DVOA vs. #1 Rush D DVOA

Bucs Offense (#2) vs. Packers Defense (#14)
#5 Pass DVOA vs. #15 Pass D DVOA
#10 Rush DVOA vs. #18 Rush D DVOA

Pros
Packers: Howard, Fezz, Moss, Schwartz, Murray.
Rams: Tucker, Raybon, Tulley.
Over: Dinsick, Raybon.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Line: Chiefs -3. Total 54. Opened Chiefs -2.5, 50.
Pro line: Chiefs -2.2. Bettor Rating Chiefs -0.2. 538: Chiefs -0.5, 52%.
Bet% Bills 55%. Money% Bills 61%.

DVOA Breakdown

Chiefs 51.4% chance to win.
Weighted DVOA: Bills #1 (34.5%). Chiefs #6 (19.4%).

Bills Offense #5 vs. Chiefs Defense #24
#3 Pass DVOA vs. #16 Pass D DVOA
#22 Rush DVOA vs. #31 Rush D DVOA

Chiefs Offense #3 vs. Bills Defense #8
#2 Pass DVOA vs. #12 Pass D DVOA
#13 Rush DVOA vs. #17 Rush D DVOA

Pros
Chiefs:
Bills: Raybon, Stuckey, Tulley.
Under: Dinsick, Schwartz.
Over: Raybon, Stuckey.

My Picks

Packers -3, U51.5.
Bills +3, U54.

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