Every year, we hear about some lower seeds pulling off an “upset for the ages” in the NCAA March Madness Tournament. Only, more often than not, it wasn’t really an upset, by Vegas odds standards, let alone one for the ages. Year after year, there are lower seeds who are actually favored in games, or very small underdogs. That is actually one of the first things I look at before filling out brackets. So, here is that exercise for public consumption.

Lower Seeds who are favored

Baylor vs. Mississippi State. This one barely qualifies. Baylor, the nine seed, is -1 in a few spots, but also +1.5 (juiced) in a few. This will likely settle somewhere around a pick em. So, actually not much to see here.

Colorado St -2.5 vs. Memphis. Here is your ever popular 12 over 5 pick this year. A seven-seed difference, but the 12 seed is actually a a 2.5-point favorite. I like to be contrarian at times with these, unless your bracket rewards taking a lower seed with a multiplier. In those brackets, I will have Colorado State in just about every one of them.

That’s actually it for those this year. The committee did okay, according to Vegas.

Double Digit Seed, Small Dogs

The next group to look at is lower seeds who are not expected to lose by much.

12 UC San Diego +3 vs. 5 Michigan.
11 VCU +2.5 vs. 6 BYU
10 New Mexico +3.5 vs. 7 Marquette

Again, not too many this year. We seem to be getting fewer of these as the committee has begun to utilize the advanced analytics stuff like KenPom, etc. If UNC wins their opener, they will likely make this list as a 1-2 point dog to Ole Miss.

Yale is the smallest dog amongst the 13s, giving just 7.5 points to Texas A&m.