Video feed crashed, so I’m live blogging it.
- Bengals–Joe Burrow, QB.
Bengals had to do this one or the fans may have rioted. I personally would have gone Chase Young, but I get it. Highest graded PFF QB season since they started grading (2014). #1 QB in Footballoutsider’s QBase as well. Bengals just have to hope the improvement was not because of Joe Brady, two first-round receivers and being a year or two older than most QB prospects.
2. Redskins–Chase Young, DE.
It’s probably a good thing they are not in Vegas for this. If I were the Redskins, I might have pulled a hammy jumping into the Bellagio fountain. PFF grade of 96.5. #1 guy in Footballoutsider’s SackSEER. Also easy comparison to the Bosa brothers that shows he stacks up well.
3. Lions–Jeffrey Okudah, CB
A long, athletic corner fits a need for Detroit and was #3 on the big board. Dude is an athlete (41-inch vertical, 99% Sparq score). Drafted for traits and lack of glaring holes. First corner to go in top three since Shawn Springs in 1997.
4. Giants–Andrew Thomas, OT
#13 on the big board. Was the expected top OT before the college season started. Can play right or left tackle for NY. Started 41 of 41 games at Georgia and is a mauler. Team captain. Kirby Smart thinks he will have a 12-14 year career. Wirfs is the athlete, Thomas is the mauler and Wills is the mix of both.
5. Dolphins–Tua Tagovailoa, QB
After all the flip flop mocks, we wind up right where we started. If healthy, Tua is efficient. He will need a system adapted to him. You also have to hope he is not another Matt Leinart–a guy who just gets the ball to extraordinary weapons who are men among boys. 12.8 and 13.4 AYPA last two years though is scary good.
6. Chargers–Justin Herbert, QB
#15 on the big board. I don’t mind this pick. Herbert is a high floor, low ceiling guy. Athletic. Just edged Tua in QBase with a 689 and met the standards on 4/5 of the Success Metrics over at DraftBreakdown. 64% completion percentage use to look pretty good before the numbers took off the last couple of years.
7. Panthers–Derrick Brown, DT.
#6 on the big board. The first of the Planet Theory–there are only so many of them on the planet. Not super athletic, but a beast with a quick first step. Can be Suh-like, but was not used that way at Auburn. Was used to absorb double teams.
8. Cardinals–Isaiah Simmons, LB
#5 on the big board. Just about everyone thought Arizona would take an OT to help out Murray, but Simmons’ versatility was too much to pass on. Dude had 100 snaps on the line, in the box, in the slot and at safety. Dude is a Swiss Army Knife in the Derwin James mold.
9. Jaguars–CJ Henderson, CB.
So much for him falling to the Raiders at 12. Some had him very close to Okudah in the CB rankings. Scored well in Sparq (95%). A worker bee who should play in this league for a long time. Best press-man DB in the draft.
10. Browns–Jedrick Wills, OT.
Wonder when the last time we had zero trades in the top 10 was? I had an OT going to Cleveland in my mock and Willas was #9 on the big board, so this makes sense. Dude has the same vertical as CeeDee Lamb. Let that sink in. Coaches loved this guy and raved about his study habit. Played RT at Bama, Tua’s blindside.
I entered a mini mock contest online and got 5 of the first 6 correct, earning a $50 payout. I’ll take it.
They answered my trade question from earlier. 2015. Would have thought longer ago.
11. Jets–Mekhi Becton, OT.
#14 on the big board. A mountain, not a man. Becton could be the next Bryant McKinnie or could be out of the league quickly. There may not be much middle ground. I tried to force a girth joke in here, but it didn’t work.
I actually had this one mocked here.
12. Raiders–Henry Ruggs III, WR.
I have a history of saying who I would take with each Raider pick. It wasn’t hard to outdraft Al Davis. This year, I wanted Henderson to fall and then take a WR at 19, but that didn’t happen. So, I’d take CeeDee Lamb here.
Well, they went WR. 4.27 40-yard dash. Al Davis’ corpse just popped a woody. Curious if he is the highest WR ever drafted to never have more than 750 receiving yards in a season. Supreme athlete (watch his basketball tape) with a low market share of receiving yards but a ton of TDs. First WR off the board was #4 in FO’s Playmaker score. Think he might have been there at 19. # 12 on the big board, so not a horrible value. I just preferred Lamb. Would like to see some jet sweeps with him and Jalen Hurts (drafted later) on some play action. He did at least play mostly outside in college, while Jeudy worked the slot.
They just showed some drone footage from MacDill AFB. I know a guy…
13. Bucs–Tristan Wirfs, OT.
#10 on the big board. My favorite OT in the draft, but that may just be because he is a weight room beast. My man power cleans 450 pounds and a state wrestling and shot/discus champ. Many thought he was a guard before combine, which he tore up. He is in the 99% rank of Sparq score. Worst case, he is an all pro guard for years. Just keep him off scooters. Really, who gets a DUI on a scooter while underage? Actually, this guy might be my favorite guy in the draft now that I think about it. Just don’t let Gronk get a hold of him.
14. 49ers–Javon Kinlaw, DT.
Another I got in my mock, sort of. I had the 49ers taking him at 13 before they moved down one spot. #11 on the big board. One of those “hear his backstory, have to root for him” guys. was homeless, did not graduate HS, got his GED in JuCo. He was the best player at the Senior Bowl before knee issues flared up. He is another weight room guy. 324 pounds, 16 percent bodyfat.
15. Broncos–Jerry Jeudy, WR.
There is the Sanders replacement. This is where I had Ruggs going, so I got the Alabama WR part right. Jeudy was #7 on the big board. Ran a 4.45 40. Best route runner of the first-round guys. We just have to figure out how Jake Fromm had a faster short shuttle than Jeudy.
16. Falcons–AJ Terrell, CB.
The first guy in the 40s on the big board taken (#41). A guy a lot of people had the Raiders taking at 19. I had the Falcons taking a corner (Henderson) in my mock, so this fits with Henderson already gone. He is another physical press-man guy who loves challenges. Not a technician, but a competitor who will work to improve. Tested above average in Sparq.
I would love to have Lamb fall to 19, but don’t think he is getting there.
17. Cowboys–CeeDee Lamb, WR.
Well, see directly above. Pair the guy I wanted for the Raiders with a former Raider in Amari Cooper. The best QB in Footballoutsider’s DYAR last year just got another weapon. Lamb was the Playmaker #1 WR and had 31 percent of Oklahoma’s passing yards last year. #8 on the big board.
Billions promo! Love that show.
18. Dolphins–Austin Jackson, OT.
Second pick for the Fish, the Minkah Fitzpatrick pick. I got this one right in the mock as well. Jackson struggled early last year, after donating bone marrow to his sister. (Im switching to Arif Hason’s big board for the mentions here on.) Was just #43 on the big board, but some of that may have been which films were watched. Two year starter at LT who can move well. If he gets the “nasty” to match the smoothness, could be a stud.
19. Raiders–Damon Arnette, CB.
Back to saying who I would take before. Before free agency, I would have said Kenneth Murray, my favorite off-LOS linebacker, but they signed two linebackers in FA. I really like Murray, but would seriously think about AJ Epenesa to create a rush rotation. Epenesa is my #2 edge guy in the draft.
Jesus Mayock. What the fuck? Time to switch to whiskey. Seriously. #63 on the big board. I honestly didn’t even get to research him yet.
20. Jaguars–K’lavon Chaisson, Edge.
Raw. Didn’t play half of high school, going out as a junior. Got hurt sophomore year (torn ACL) at LSU as well. Did I mention raw. Also young at just 20, one of youngest in draft. Could be the guy who improves the most between now and this time next year. Taking potential more than production at this point.
I wasn’t kidding about the whiskey. You did this, Mayock. You did this.
21. Eagles–Jalen Reagor, WR.
A good fit for Philly. Raegor is a safe guy. Not a ton of production, but explosive and meets all five of the success metrics. Led TCU in receiving yards three years in a row. Had just 611 this year, but that was 25 percent of TCU’s total receiving yards. Had 1,000-plus two years ago. #41 on big board.
22. Vikings–Justin Jefferson, WR.
Picked their Diggs replacement with the pick they got for him. Jefferson was #3 in Playmaker score, met 3/3 success metrics and rated an 81.8% in Sparq. #18 on the big board and I had him going pick #20 in my mock. Solid value here if he can play outside, which he did not do at LSU, because Thielen is not moving out there.
23. Chargers–Kenneth Murray, LB.
Shocker. The Patriots traded out of the first round. And there goes my favorite off-ball linebacker in the draft. #20 on the big board. Started all 42 games at Oklahoma. Team captain by sophomore year and was the defensive playcaller his entire year. 94% athlete with 335 career tackles. Not as instinctive as Queen, but more athletic and more experienced. Gonna be fun watching him in the same defense with Derwin James.
Yellowstone promo reminds me to remind you it is a mediocre show with great music. It is Sons of Anarchy, on a ranch. And I don’t mean the good parts of Sons. They all need to die.
24. Saints–Cesar Ruiz, C.
There are not many interior guys draftable in the first round this year. Ruiz was one of them. #30 on the big board and one of those guys with a heartbreaking loss of a parent that makes you want to root for the guy. 31 career starts at Michigan. Might play guard at first with Saints getting a decent center last year.
25. 49ers–Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona St.
Traded by Vikings. Kyle Shanahan gets another toy throw too. Did not score well in Playmaker. Busted out with 1192 yards as a senior. Played two years at JuCo before Arizona St. Had 37% of ASU’s passing yards. Bit older at 22 already. Met standards in 2/3 success metrics. #39 on big board.
26. Packers–Jordan Love, QB.
Aaron Rodgers has come full circle. But this guy ain’t Arod. #35 on the big board. QBase was not good (57), although admittedly he was the only starter back this year on Utah State’s offense. Jordan Love would flop if drafted by a lot of teams. In Green Bay, he will have a chance to learn and improve on some major holes. This was one of the best possible landing spots for him to even have a chance at making it. I’m not sure he is an upgrade over Brett Hundley. Rodgers ain’t leaving for at least two more years (cap hit).
27. Seahawks–Jordyn Brooks,
Surprise of the draft. Seattle does not trade down. #84 on the big board, lowest taken yet. 4.54 40 LBs are rare. Four-year starter at Mike linebacker with 367 career tackles. Still, a reach. Probably should have traded down.
28. Ravens–Patrick Queen, LB.
Such an Ozzie Newsome pick, despite the fact Ozzie isn’t there anymore. #19 on the big board and #23 in my mock. Highest rated player on board. Just a one-year starter at LSU. Undersized but good burst and quick instincts. Reads play well. Fluid in drops in pass pro. Shoots gaps. Can get taken out due to lack of size. High-tempo read & react guy. Lateral range and closes well in flat. A sideline-to-sideline type, not a gap stuffer. Must develop get-off from blocks. Played ILB in 3-4 scheme. One of youngest players in the draft. Ravens love power programs.
29. Titans–Isaiah Wilson, OT.
The other half of the best OT pair in college football with Andrew Thomas. Bit of a reach. #57 on big board. My dude, 350 pounds, was a wildcat QB in high school. 5-star recruit. Missed time last year with an injury (left ankle sprain, 2 games). Started 24 games at RT over last two seasons. A work-in-progress with brute power. Came out early as redshirt sophomore, but already 21.
30. Dolphins–Noah Igboghene, CB.
I’m guessing Xavier McKinney before the pick here.
Okay, didn’t happen. With the two highest paid corners in football, they just drafted another CB in the first round, and one rated #52 on the big board. Son of two Olympian athletes.
31. Vikings–Jeff Gladney, CB.
I almost mocked Gladney to SF at pick 31, so I just missed back dooring this one. Was #31 on the big board, so about right value. Below average athlete for the position (47% Sparq). Tore ACL and LCL in high school but then started four years at TCU after redshirting a year. One of the oldest draftees at 23.36 years old on draft day. Just 5 Ints in 42 career starts.
32. Chiefs–Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB.
A pass catching back. I had mocked Swift there. He is somewhere in between Ahmad Bradshaw and Jaquizz Rodgers. I wasn’t a fan, but he may have just gone to one of about 3 play callers who will know how to use him. #44 on big board. #16 in Backcast, below guys like LeVante Bellamy, Patgrick Taylor and Deejay Dallas. He was third among RBs in RecIndex though. 68 percentile in Sparq, and a poor 92.5 Speed Score. Met standards in 2/5 metric standards. He will be one of those PPR darlings who might not actually be a needle mover in real football.
15 of the 32 picks came out of the SEC. Damn.
Thanks for following along. May or may not do the same tomorrow.