With the conference championships upon us, I got my power ratings updated.
This is not a look at resumes, or a debate over deserving, but a look at what the spreads would be in hypothetical matchups.
First, the ratings.
IAW | CFP | Top | Rating |
1 | 1 | Georgia | 100.0 |
2 | 7 | Ohio St | 94.5 |
3 | 3 | Alabama | 93.9 |
4 | 2 | Michigan | 89.0 |
5 | 6 | Notre Dame | 85.2 |
6 | 4 | Cincinnati | 85.0 |
7 | 5 | Oklahoma St | 84.5 |
8 | 14 | Oklahoma | 83.7 |
9 | 25 | Texas A&M | 83.6 |
10 | NR | Wisconsin | 83.5 |
11 | 8 | Ole Miss | 82.9 |
12 | 15 | Pittsburgh | 82.8 |
13 | 17 | Utah | 82.8 |
14 | NR | Iowa St | 82.7 |
15 | 20 | Clemson | 82.6 |
16 | NR | Penn St | 81.5 |
17 | 10 | Oregon | 81.1 |
18 | 18 | NC State | 81.0 |
19 | NR | Baylor | 80.4 |
20 | NR | Arkansas | 80.1 |
21 | 13 | Iowa | 78.6 |
22 | 16 | Wake Forest | 78.5 |
23 | 11 | Michigan St. | 78.4 |
24 | NR | Auburn | 78.3 |
25 | 23 | Kentucky | 78.1 |
26 | NR | Purdue | 76.1 |
27 | 21 | Houston | 75.6 |
28 | 12 | BYU | 75.2 |
29 | 24 | Louisiana | 71.7 |
30 | 19 | San Diego St | 71.1 |
31 | NR | UTSA | 70.6 |
The first column is where they rank in my power ratings. The second column is where they rank in the CFP rankings. The number on the right is their raw power rating. To figure a spread, subtract one rating from the other. Example: Georgia would be a 6.1-point favorite over Alabama, 5.5-point favorite over Ohio St. and so on.
Last time I wrote this column, I was talking about the CFP rankings overrating Michigan State and Oregon. We see now how that worked out.
Gut feeling: If Alabama had come out at #2 this week, they could have afforded a close loss to Georgia and still get in. At 3, I think that was signaling if they lose, no matter what, they are out.
Also, yes, Ohio State is still power rated above Michigan. Yes, I know what just happened Saturday.
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