As we enter Selection Sunday, I got my composite power ratings updated as of yesterday morning. These ratings are an average of multiple rating systems. Included in these is KenPom, Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings, VSIN’s bettor ratings, TeamRankings and Sonny Moore ratings. They are then equalized to a normalized spread ratings.

For example, not factoring in injuries, travel, etc. Duke would be a 2.1 point favorite over Auburn on a neutral, 2.8 over Florida and so on on a neutral court.

Clear Number Ones

As you can see, there should be a clear four for the number one seeds, with Duke, Auburn, Florida and Houston. The talk two weeks ago was Auburn could lose their remaining games and still be the number one overall seed. Then they went out and lost 3 of their last four. We’ll see if that mattered, not that overall seed matters all that much.

The Bubble

As for the bubble teams, I looked at Joe Lunardi’s “On The Bubble”.

His last four byes: Oklahoma, Arkansas, West Virginia, Utah State.
Last four in: Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Xavier, Indiana.
First four out: Boise State, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio State.
Next four out: Dayton, UC Irvine, Wake Forest, SMU.

Looking at those in order of rating below:

North Carolina 86.1
Ohio State 85.4
Arkansas 85.1
Xavier 85.0
Texas 85.0
Oklahoma 84.6
Indiana 83.9
Boise St 83.5
Vanderbilt 83.3
Utah State 83.2
San Diego St 83.1
West Virginia 83.1
Wake Forest 80.4
UC Irvine 80.3
Dayton 80.1

Of the bubble teams, UNC would be favored over any of the others, but my guess is they don’t get in. They are a high profile team having a down year by their standards. The Quad 1 record will be enough of a reason to keep them out, despite the superior composite power ratings. Don’t believe these numbers? Just look at Duke’s last two games. With the same personnel on the same court in back-to-back nights, they were 6.5 point favorites over UNC and 6 point favorites over Louisville, a half point difference. The Heels are projected to be out, while the Cardinals are comfortably in as a likely six seed.

Composite Spread Power Ratings

1	Duke Blue Devils	100.0
2	Auburn Tigers	97.9
3	Florida Panthers	97.2
4	Houston Cougars	97.1
5	Alabama Tide	95.4
6	Tennessee Vols	93.6
7	Texas Tech Red Raiders	93.0
8	Michigan St Spartans	92.3
9	Iowa St Cyclones	92.2
10	Gonzaga Zags	92.2
11	Arizona Wildcats	91.2
12	Maryland Terrapins	91.2
13	St. John’s Red Storm	90.8
14	Wisconsin Badgers	90.4
15	Illinois Fightin Illlini	90.1
16	Kentucky Wildcats	89.9
17	Kansas Jayhawks	89.6
18	Purdue Boiler Makers	89.5
19	Texas A&M Aggies	89.2
20	Missouri Tigers	88.9
21	Louisville Cardinals	88.8
22	Clemson Tigers	88.7
23	BYU Cougars	88.4
24	UCLA Bruins	88.1
25	Connecticut Huskies	87.7
26	Marquette Golden Eagles	87.6
27	Mississippi Rebels	87.6
28	Michigan Wolverines	87.5
29	Saint Mary’s Gaels	87.4
30	Baylor Bears	87.2
31	Oregon Ducks	86.7
32	VCU Rams	86.6
33	Mississippi St Bulldogs	86.2
34	Creighton Blue Jays	86.2
35	North Carolina Tar Heels	86.1
36	Georgia Bulldogs	85.9
37	Ohio St Buckeyes	85.4
38	Arkansas Razorbacks	85.1
39	Xavier Musketeers	85.0
40	Texas Longhorns	85.0
41	Oklahoma Sooners	84.6
42	New Mexico Lobos	84.4
43	Indiana Hoosiers	83.9
44	Colorado St Rams	83.8
45	UC San Diego Tritons	83.6
46	Boise St Broncos	83.5
47	Vanderbilt Commodores	83.3
48	Utah State Aggies	83.2
49	San Diego St Aztecs	83.1
50	Memphis Tigers	83.1
51	West Virginia Mountaineers	83.1
52	McNeese Cowboys	81.0
53	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	80.4
54	UC Irvine Anteaters	80.3
55	Dayton Flyers	80.1
56	Liberty Flames	80.0
57	Yale Bulldogs	79.3
58	High Point Panthers	78.5
59	Grand Canyon Antelopes	77.2
60	Lipscomb Bisons	77.1
61	UAB Blazers	76.3
62	Troy Trojans	75.6
63	UNC Wilmington Seahawks	75.6
64	Akron Zips	75.4
65	Wofford Terriers	73.5
66	Bryant Bulldogs	72.4
67	Robert Morris Colonials	72.2
68	Montana Grizzlies	71.1
69	Omaha Mavericks	71.0
70	Norfolk State Spartans	69.9
71	SIU Edwardsville Cougars	67.7
72	American Eagles	66.4
73	Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers	66.0
74	Alabama St Hornets	64.2
75	St. Francis PA Red Flash	61.3

Note: Posted before Sunday’s games. A couple of automatic bids could change.