College Football Power Ratings, Championship Week

At the start of this football season, I made the decision to not do power ratings this year. I simply did not want to invest the time in ratings teams in a season with so much capacity for chaos during a pandemic. Players out, games cancelled, etc. It just seemed like a futile exercise this year, just like resistance to the Borg.

But, with championship week upon us and the playoff, I decided to do my power ratings for the 25 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings. This is not a ranking of who should be in or out, but what my spreads would be in hypothetical matchups.

Alabama is the top team this year, and by 6-plus points over any other team. Only two teams are within single digits of them. If they cover the next three games, they have to be in the conversation for best teams of all time, even with fewer data points (games).

Courtesy: rolltide.com
IAW RTG
1Alabama0.0
2Clemson6.2
3Ohio St7.9
4Georgia12.9
5Oklahoma13.4
6Notre Dame14.7
7Florida15.0
8Cincinnati16.8
9Texas A&M17.9
10Iowa St18.6
11BYU18.8
12Iowa20.2
13USC21.2
14UNC21.2
15Texas21.6
16Indiana22.5
17Miami24.9
18Oklahoma St25.1
19Northwestern26.2
20Coastal Carolina27.3
21LA-Lafayette28.6
22Tulsa29.9
23NC State32.8
24Colorado33.3
25San Jose St.34.9

Home field advantage has been a crap shoot this year. There is a way to do regressive analysis to fine-tune for each team. Instead, I’m keeping it simple 1.5 if not a neutral site game.

Alabama -15 vs. Florida
Ohio St. -18.3 vs. Northwestern
Oklahoma -5.2 vs. Iowa St.
Coastal Carolina -2.8 vs. Lafayette
Clemson -8.5 vs. Notre Dame
Cincinnati -14.6 vs. Tulsa

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